SA CUR decreased by 0.3pps 77.5% in October after 4-month long surge. In October, 3-month average figure was 77.4% (4Q20: 75.2%, 3Q21: 77%, Historical Average: 76%).
In yearly comparison, all sub- indices recorded increases for the 7-month in a row. The highest YoY increase was seen on non-durable goods’ CUR whereas capital goods’
CUR lost momentum.
Unadjusted CUR decreased by 0.1pps MoM, but increased 2.6pps YoY to 78%.
CUR of all sub-groups reached pre- pandemic levels. On the other hand, both intermediate and capital goods’ CUR recorded decreases in monthly basis.
19 out of 23 sub-sectors of manufacturing sector posted positive annual changes. The
highest increases were seen on CURs of bevereages, wearing apperal and other manufacturing whereas the highest YoY decreases were seen on CURs of computer-electronics, paper and printing-media.
SA RSCI recorded first monthly drop by 1.8% to 111.3 after 4 consecutive months of increases, but continued to stay at the optimistic area for the 15th month in a row. 3-month average figure was 112.3 in October (4Q20: 109.2, 3Q21: 112.5, Historical Average:
103.5).
Confidence indices can take value between 0 and 200. It indicates an optimistic outlook when the indices are above 100, but it indicates a pessimistic outlook when they are
below 100 (and stable outlook when the indices are equal to 100).
Only investment recorded a monthly increase and remained at the optimistic area for the 13th month in a row. The sharpest drop was seen in general situation index.
Optimistic outlook continues. On the other hand, volume of output recorded the sharpest drop since November 2020. Ongoing recovery trend on the total orders deserved attention.
Service sector confidence index recorded 5th monthly increase (+2.5%) in a row and renewed its historical high (120.3). Also, service sector confidence index continued to stay at the optimistic area for the 10th consecutive months.
In October, demand, business situation and employment indices recorded increases and continue to stay at the optimistic area..
Despite all three indices on the Outlook continued to remain above the optimistic area since November 2020, demand index recorded third monthly drop in a row.
As of October 2021, 63.8% of the firms in the services sector said
there was no factor which limit activitites. On the other hand, insufficient demand (16.2%), financial constraints (14.3%) and other factors (13.3%) were shown
as the main factors limiting activities.
In October, a 54,4% of the firms in services sector said that they could increase their activities by 16.5% in the case of increased demand without any change in their current
resources.
Retail-trade sector confidence recorded the 5th monthly increase (+5.6%) in a row and continued to stay above of 100 (121.1) for the 12th month in a row.
Volume of stocks decreased in a lower pace than the the rise of business activity and sales.
All expectations remained at optimistic side for the 12th month in a row. Expectations on prices (this was the third consecutive drop) and employment recorded monthly decreases.
As of October 2021, 65.8% of firms in the retail trade sector said there was no factor which limit activitites. On the other hand, insufficient demand (21.2%), other factors (13.8%) and financial constraints (12.7%) were shown as the main factors limiting activities.
In October, a 64% of the firms in retail trade sector said that they could increase their activities by 15.4% in the case of increased demand without any change in their current resources.
Construction sector confidence index (92.7) recorded a monthly increase (+0.9%), but continued to stay at the pessimistic area.
Current order books recorded first monthly drop after 4 months later whereas building activity continued to recover for the 4th month in a row. However, both indices continued to remain at the pessimistic area.
Employment and price expectation indices continued to stay above of critical value of 100 and both indice recorded monthly increases.
In October, 57% of the firms in the construction sector said there was no factor which limit activitites. On the other hand, financial constraints (30%), insufficient demand (20.6%) and other factors (17.4%) were shown as the main factors limiting activities.
In October, a 50.3% of the firms in construction sector said that they could increase their activities by 19,6% in the case of increased demand without any change in their current resources.
Y. F. Securities Research