Goldman and Deutsche issue new dollar/TL forecasts

According to comments Turkish media and analysis obtained by Turkish experts, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche FX analysts are fairly sanguine on the path of dollar/TL exchange rate.  Both forecasts entail the continuation of “reel appreciation” of TL vs the dollar in 2024-2025, that is the exchange rate will weaken slower than the forecast rates of CPI available at this juncture.

Deutsche Bank Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) Research Director Wietoska commented that the change of Governor in the CBRT will not change the CBRT’s stance and shared his year-end dollar TL forecast.


Noting that an additional interest rate increase from the CBRT is not yet in the base scenarios, Wietoska said, “We expect the orthodox approach to continue. The Central Bank will continue to fight inflation. If there is an upward movement in inflation, a 250-500 basis point rate hike may occur. But, an additional interest rate increase is not in our base scenario.

“At this point, the Central Bank may strengthen  macroprudential measures and there may be developments in reserves and Exchange Rate Protected Deposits scheme,” he added.

Speaking to Bloomberg HT, a private financial news broadcaster, not related to Bloomberg, but licensed by it,  Wietoska also shared his prediction that Dollar/TL may move towards 38 by the end of the year. Dollar/TL is trading at around 30.50 as of Wednesday afternoon.


US investment bank Goldman Sachs made a remarkable prediction on the exchange rate, too. Şenol Babuşcu, former Deputy General Manager of Ziraat Bank, shared Goldman Sachs’ analysis on his social media account.

Goldman predicts that dollar/TL will reach 32 TL after 3 months, and it will increase to 34 TL after 6 months.

Goldman Sachs emphasized that the dollar exchange rate will reach 37 TL at the end of the year.

The bank expects the dollar to exceed 40 lira in 2025, and to soar to 44  and 48 liras, respectively,  in 2026 and  2027.


Turkish  press sources


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.