According to comments Turkish media and analysis obtained by Turkish experts, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche FX analysts are fairly sanguine on the path of dollar/TL exchange rate. Both forecasts entail the continuation of “reel appreciation” of TL vs the dollar in 2024-2025, that is the exchange rate will weaken slower than the forecast rates of CPI available at this juncture.
Deutsche Bank Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) Research Director Wietoska commented that the change of Governor in the CBRT will not change the CBRT’s stance and shared his year-end dollar TL forecast.
Noting that an additional interest rate increase from the CBRT is not yet in the base scenarios, Wietoska said, “We expect the orthodox approach to continue. The Central Bank will continue to fight inflation. If there is an upward movement in inflation, a 250-500 basis point rate hike may occur. But, an additional interest rate increase is not in our base scenario.
“At this point, the Central Bank may strengthen macroprudential measures and there may be developments in reserves and Exchange Rate Protected Deposits scheme,” he added.
Speaking to Bloomberg HT, a private financial news broadcaster, not related to Bloomberg, but licensed by it, Wietoska also shared his prediction that Dollar/TL may move towards 38 by the end of the year. Dollar/TL is trading at around 30.50 as of Wednesday afternoon.
US investment bank Goldman Sachs made a remarkable prediction on the exchange rate, too. Şenol Babuşcu, former Deputy General Manager of Ziraat Bank, shared Goldman Sachs’ analysis on his social media account.
Goldman predicts that dollar/TL will reach 32 TL after 3 months, and it will increase to 34 TL after 6 months.
Goldman Sachs emphasized that the dollar exchange rate will reach 37 TL at the end of the year.
The bank expects the dollar to exceed 40 lira in 2025, and to soar to 44 and 48 liras, respectively, in 2026 and 2027.
Turkish press sources
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