First two surveys after the earthquake: AKP continues to melt!

As Turkey prepares for presidential and parliamentary elections, ALF Research company announced the first post-quake national  voter attitude survey results. According to the election survey conducted in the third week of February, AKP’s votes continued to melt. The company said the AKP had fallen below 30 percent.

While Turkey is dealing with the negativities of the Kahramanmaras earthquake, it is also preparing for elections. Surveys are slowly beginning to  measure the political fallout from the quake for presidential and parliamentary elections to be held on   18  June, but may be brought forward to 14 May by Erdogan’s executive order .

The opinion poll conducted by ALF Research between February 21 and 25 revealed the meltdown in the ruling Republican Alliance.

According to the results of the survey, the support rate of the Republican Alliance was 35.1%. The vote rate of the Nation Alliance was announced as 47.6%.

The support rates of the parties (after allocating undecideds to parties) are as follows:

* AKP: 29.5 percent

* CHP: 27.8 percent-Nation Alliance member

* IYI Party: 15.7 percent—Nation Alliance member

* HDP: 9.8 percent

* MHP: 5.6 percent – AKP ally

* Victory Party: 2.5 percent

* Nation Party: 2.2 percent

* DEVA Party: 1.8 percent—Nation Alliance member

*New  Welfare Party: 1.6 percent

* Future Party: 1.5 percent-Nation Alliance member

ORC Bursa and Balikesir surveys

After the earthquake, ORC Research conducted a voter poll with 3420 people in Bursa between 15 -19 February. Under the name of ORC’s Political Trends Survey, the question “Which party would you vote for if there were an election this Sunday?” was asked. According to report, while the vote rate of the Republican Alliance in Bursa, the municipality of  which is currently in the hands of the AKP, was 42.1%, compared to the Nation Alliance at  49.5%.


According to the ORC’s Political Trends Research Balikesir Report, there is a difference of more than 21 points between the Republican  and the Nation Alliances.

The support rate of the Republican Alliance was reported at 36.3 percent, while  Nation Alliance scored 57.4 percent.


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.