CHP leadership race:  Ozgur Ozel  or Kilicdaroglu?

The first poll about the leadership race in main opposition party CHP came from pro-AKP polling agency Betimar. Kilicdaroglu is ahead among CHP voters, but support for Ozel from other opposition parties is considerable.


Gürkan Duman, Chairman of Betimar Board of Directors, commented on the presidential race in the “No holds barred” program on Halk TV. Duman said, “Apart from our main questions, a few breakdowns are decisive in the process. We obtain results by carrying out our work in 26 provinces. “It is the result of a study we obtained through field studies on 1500 people,” he said.


“CHP voters want Özel with 46.6 percent”

Duman continued:

“Our first question to the people is what do they think about Özgür Özel’s candidacy decision? Here, we got the result that it was viewed positively with a rate of 33 percent. 44 percent of people said that his candidacy  was wrong. 12.1 percent of people responded that they support the candidacy decision, but the timing is wrong.

One of the most important things that needs to be stated here is that 57 percent of the Nation Alliance voters who support the İYİ Party said that Özgür Özel’s decision was correct. On the Green Left Party side, 46.3 percent of voters support Özgür Özel’s candidacy. 14.4 percent of AK Party voters and 16.2 percent of MHP voters support Özel’s candidacy.



CHP divided

There is a fracture within the CHP. While 46.6 percent think that Özgür Özel’s candidacy is correct, 21.4 percent say that the candidacy decision is right but the timing is wrong. 26 percent say they find the decision wrong.

If we consider the general electorate, 49.3% think that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will win the presidency. 38.2 percent think Özgür Özel will win. “There are also 12 percent who do not respond.”


“Whether Ozel is the right person or not,  Kilicdaroglu’s departure would increase voter interest in local elections and perhaps inspire some marginally attached ones to give   the party a last chance” commented a political expert who wishes to remain anonymous.


Kilicdaroglu failed to lock the leadership contest before it started, because in Istanbul and Ankara “pro-change” delegates may have beaten his nominees. Several provincial straw polls were marred by fisticuffs, suggesting the rank and file is divided and highly motivated for the upcoming Grand Convention, expected to be scheduled before the turn of the year, where polling will take place.


In party leadership contests the incumbent always enjoys a huge advantage, but this time around the perception that Kilicdaroglu’s clock had run out may give Ozel a fighting chance.


Source:  Kısa Dalga



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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.