Researcher Bekir Ağırdır stated that the local elections have turned into a race between Erdoğan and İmamoğlu and said, “The most important sign for the future would be İmamoğlu’s victory.” Ağırdır stated that the AKP’s only handicap is that the YRP is not running a separate candidate.
Bekir Ağırdır, one of Turkey’s leading public opinion researchers and former KONDA managing director, wrote that there is an air of “cautious expectation” in both the ruling and opposition wings ahead of the March 31 local elections. Stating that the local elections have turned into a race for the mayorship of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Ağırdır said, “Although there is a race between İmamoğlu and Kurum in Istanbul, everyone knows that the race is actually between Erdoğan and İmamoğlu. Therefore, the most important sign for the future would be İmamoğlu’s victory.”
Ağırdır also commented that “the AKP’s only handicap in Istanbul is not the separate candidacy of Yeniden Refah,” adding that “Erdoğan has been intervening in the field with the bureaucracy rather than the AK Party organization for a long time. This has produced a significant decrease in the energy and capacity of the party organization.”
THE ELECTION IN ISTANBUL IS STILL UNCERTAIN
The highlights of Bekir Ağırdır’s election evaluation published in Gazete Oksijen nine days before the local elections are as follows:
“In Istanbul, which has become the focal point of the local elections, İmamoğlu seems to be ahead by 3 points, based on a desk study using the findings of 36 surveys by 15 research companies. Considering the average vote rates of the candidates of the YRP, IYI Party, Zafer parties in the same desk study of 3 points each and the DEM party’s vote rates of 5 points, it can be said that the election is still in the middle.
ERDOGAN LACKS THE USUAL ENERGY
Although the sense of anger and despair among the opposition bloc voters following the general elections has not yet completely disappeared, it is observed that the voters of the ruling bloc have not been able to reflect their moral superiority to the field, on the contrary, they are cautiously waiting. Although there is still a sense of uneasiness or hope that Erdoğan will pull a rabbit out of a hat in the last week, it seems as if Erdoğan does not have the usual energy. Still, we will see which crazy promise or discourse he will use in the last week to galvanize his voters.
KURUM’S TEAM HAS TIED ITS FATE TO ERDOĞAN’S INGENUITY
The ruling bloc’s handicap is not only that the YRP is running a separate candidate. For a long time now, Erdoğan has been intervening on the ground with the bureaucracy rather than the AK Party organization. This has produced a significant decrease in the energy and capacity of the party organization. Most of the candidates selected for the local elections, including Murat Kurum, come not from the organization but from the bureaucracy.
A similar loss of capacity is seen in strategy and campaign design and implementation. It is not possible to say that the campaign for Kurum was based on a fundamental strategy and creativity. It is clear that Kurum and his team have also tied their fate to Erdoğan’s ingenuity.
MORAL SUPERIORITY IS WITH IMAMOĞLU
İmamoğlu, on the other hand, is marching with a studied strategy and has the moral superiority. İmamoğlu is on the stage as a politician who won twice in Istanbul in 2019, three months apart, maintained his claim for the presidential elections until the last day, and won a congress in his party, which collapsed emotionally after the lost election.
Despite the fierce and angry internal rivalry following the dissolution of the opposition bloc’s alliances, and despite the parties competing in Istanbul, each with strong candidates, Imamoğlu seems to be winning the Presidential vote of almost half of the parties’ Istanbul voters. Still, it is too early to say that Imamoğlu will definitely win.
Even though there is a race between İmamoğlu and Kurum in Istanbul, everyone knows that the race is actually between Erdoğan and İmamoğlu. Therefore, the most important sign for the future would be İmamoğlu’s victory. Even if the general balance does not change, Imamoğlu’s victory will trigger new alignments both in the CHP and the opposition. More importantly, it would be a source of hope for desperate opposition voters.”