BBVA Turkey | Industrial Production remained strong in 3Q

Industrial Production (IP) grew parallel to expectations by 8.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (8.8% yoy in raw series) in September. We expect 2021 GDP growth to be 9.5% with risks on the upside considering the expansionary bias of the economy policies.



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Key points

The monthly figure shrank by 1.5% but brought the quarter-on-quarter growth rate to 1.6% in 3Q21, signaling a very slight acceleration compared to 2Q21 (1.5%).

The pace of recovery was more or less maintained in intermediary and capital goods production, whereas the acceleration of consumer goods production (mainly non-durable) was compensated by the deceleration in energy goods production.

Leading indicators such as electricity production, manufacturing sector capacity utilization rate (down to 77.5% in Oct) and slight deterioration in manufacturing PMI (down to 51.2 in Oct), all indicate a slow-down in economic activity.

Given the ongoing strong performance of our Big Data domestic demand indicators in early November, overall demand might remain stronger than the pace of production, indicating further possible decline in inventories and ongoing pull factor on inflation outlook.


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.