ANALYSIS:  New polls show CHP ahead in major cities, Erdogan to personally  take over Istanbul campaign

The results of AREA Research’s Ankara, Mersin and Adana surveys have been published. There are also remarkable results in the survey conducted by Artıbir Research regarding the race between Ekrem İmamoğlu (CHP, incumbent) and AKP candidate  Murat Kurum in Istanbul.



The ruling party’s goal is to take Istanbul… The party is  trying all methods ethical or not to achieve this goal. According to news from party campaign headquarter,   AKP will “take all kinds of initiatives and prepare different strategies”  to regain the lead in Istanbul. The AKP provincial organization and headquarters want Erdoğan to take over the campaign by more personal apparencies, while it is alleged that Murat Kurum insists that this will harm him.


According to the results of the survey conducted by AREA Research in Ankara, Adana and Mersin, CHP is the leading party in all 3 metropolitan cities.


In the survey conducted in Ankara, Adana and Mersin, voters were asked “What would be your voting preference in the Metropolitan Municipality election?”


In the survey attended by 10 thousand 462 participants, CHP emerged as the first party in all 3 metropolitan cities.



In the survey conducted in Ankara, between 10 and 15 March 2024, with 4 thousand 405 people aged 18 and over, residing in all districts of the city, using a face-to-face survey method, the participants were asked “What would be your voting preference in the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Mayoral election on 31 March 2024?” ” The question was posed.


According to the information shared, the survey result was as follows:

CHP: 59.1 percent

AK Party: 30.3 percent

İYİ Party: 4.2 percent

New Welfare Party: 3.3 percent

Victory Party: 1.5 percent

DEM Party: 1.2 percent

Other: 0.4 percent



According to the information shared, the survey result was as follows:

CHP: 47.1 percent

AK Party: 40 percent

İYİ Party: 5.5 percent

DEM Party: 4.1 percent

Victory Party: 1.6 percent

New Welfare Party: 1.1 percent

Other: 0.6 percent




According to the information shared, the survey result was as follows:

CHP: 59.6 percent

MHP: 35.3 percent

DEM Party: 2.6 percent

İYİ Party: 1 Percent

New Welfare Party: 0.7 percent

Victory Party: 0.6 percent

Other: 0.2 percent



According to Artibir Research’s Istanbul survey, İmamoğlu gets 38.2 percent of the votes while Murat Kurum is at 35.7 percent.

The rate of undecided people stands out as 10.3 percent.


Artibir Research Istanbul Survey:


* İmamoğlu: 38.2%

* Kurum: 35.7%


(Other candidates not  shown)



According to Spectrum House’s survey before the upcoming local elections, Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu maintains a 4-point lead over his rivals in Istanbul. According to the research, İmamoğlu also receives the support of conservative Kurds and AK Party voters.


While the political atmosphere is heating up before the March 31 local elections in Istanbul, the latest survey conducted by Spectrum House Research Center revealed that İmamoğlu is leading the race by 4 points. Research Center General Director Azad Barış underlined the interest of Kurdish voters and young people in İmamoğlu.


According to the news in Gazette Duvar, Azad Barış said, “Kurdish Generation Z is not ashamed of their own culture. For this reason, we think that they will vote for the candidate closest to the center of universal values, and this mainly points to İmamoğlu.” According to their research, İmamoğlu attracts a significant voting potential from both Kurdish youth and conservatives.




Istanbul: Erdogan is not happy with Murat Kurum, he will campaign himself


According to Nagihan Yılkın’s news, AKP lobbies have mobilized for Istanbul just days before the local elections. Evaluating the polls, party staff state that Murat Kurum, the common candidate of the Republic  Alliance (AKP and MHP), could not make the desired impact on voters, despite promises of massive social and infrastructure spending. It is stated that there are different strategies prepared within the party to win the Istanbul election, and these will be put into action soon.



Saying that the last week was critical, AKP members closely follow Islamic tariqats, NGOs and associations for migrants from other cities, which constitute a majority of voters.  For instance, settlers from Sivas and the Black Sea region cities are well organized and tend to vote for candidates from their home cities, rather than by party affiliation.

It was claimed that the provincial organization and the headquarters wanted to “definitely see” President Erdoğan on the field, and Murat Kurum persistently thought that this would harm him.



Some staff members think that the “Erdoganistas”, which they describe as the rant seekers, lost the election in 2019. Stating that the same team is in action again, AKP members evaluate that “This team can cause the election to be lost on the evening of March 31 by working against the interests of the party.


Another factor that worries the AKP staff is that the Black Sea people in Istanbul will side with Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who is from Trabzon.


Various Turkish  press sources


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.