Al-Monitor poll: Erdogan ‘on thin ice’, neck to neck election on the horizon

As the battle for Turkey’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections intensifies, an Al-Monitor poll predicts a tight race between the country’s leading opposition bloc and the ruling alliance.

Turkey’s opposition alliance holds only a small lead against the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan-led ruling coalition, an Al-Monitor/Premise poll suggests, as the country faces one of the worst economic crises in its history with record high inflation ahead of critical elections in June.

Yet Erdogan’s party, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), remains the most popular individually, with 28% of respondents saying they would vote for the AKP if elections were held tomorrow. The second-largest share went to the CHP at 24%.

The poll of 994 respondents was conducted by Al-Monitor in partnership with data and analytics firm Premise between Aug. 30 and Nov. 30, 2022, across different regions of Turkey. The margin of error is +/-3%.

The poll shows Turkey’s opposition, a six-party bloc, four points ahead of the AKP and its de facto ultranationalist ally. The opposition alliance garners 36% of votes, while support for the ruling alliance stands at 32%. The ruling AKP received 28% of the vote and Nationalist Movement Party got 4%.

The main opposition faction the Republican People’s Party got 24%, while the Nationalist Iyi Party and DEVA Party polled at 9% and 3%, respectively. The six-party opposition bloc also includes the AKP-split Future Party led by former premier Ahmet Davutoglu, the Islamist Felicity Party and the tiny Democrat Party.

The Al-Monitor/Premise poll put support for Turkey’s pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) at 4%. The Kurdish vote was determinative in the 2019 local elections, and many believe could be vital this time as well.


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