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Poll Shows CHP Leading; Erdoğan Trails in Key Presidential Scenarios

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A new survey by Ankara Research and Consultancy indicates that the main opposition CHP has moved into first place, ahead of the ruling AK Party. In presidential matchups, opposition figures appear to outperform Recep Tayyip Erdoğan once undecided voters are allocated, while public demand for early elections remains strong.

CHP Emerges as Leading Party

According to the survey, conducted with 2,004 respondents and reported by journalist Fatih Altaylı, voter preferences have shifted notably.

Voting intention (after allocating undecided voters):

  • CHP: 32.2%
  • AK Party: 29.5%
  • DEM Party: 9.3%
  • MHP: 7.1%
  • İYİ Party: 6.3%
  • Anahtar Party: 4.7%
  • Yeniden Refah Party: 3.5%
  • Zafer Party: 3%

Before redistribution, both major parties poll significantly lower, indicating a sizable undecided bloc.

Presidential Race: Opposition Candidates Ahead

Ekrem İmamoğlu vs. Erdoğan

  • İmamoğlu: 55.6%
  • Erdoğan: 44.4%

Before undecided voters are distributed:

  • İmamoğlu: 43.4%
  • Erdoğan: 35.7%
  • Non-voters: 13.3%

Mansur Yavaş vs. Erdoğan

  • Yavaş: 56%
  • Erdoğan: 49%

This scenario also shows a clear lead for the opposition.

Özgür Özel vs. Erdoğan

  • Özel: 50.7%
  • Erdoğan: 49.3%

A much tighter race, but still marginally favoring the opposition candidate.

Strong Public Demand for Early Elections

The survey also highlights growing pressure for elections:

  • Early election support: 59.9%
  • Opposition to early elections: 32.4%
  • Support for by-elections: 54.1%

Alternative Forecasts Point to Similar Trend

Separate projections by pollster Murat Kızılboğa also place CHP ahead:

  • CHP: 33.3%
  • AK Party: 30.2%
  • DEM Party: 9.2%

These estimates suggest a consistent 3-point lead for CHP.

Seat projections under this scenario indicate:

  • Cumhur Alliance: 249 seats
  • CHP: 229 seats
  • Other blocs: fragmented distribution

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Key Takeaways

  • CHP appears to have regained first place in voter preferences
  • Opposition candidates lead in most presidential scenarios
  • Undecided voters remain a decisive factor
  • Public demand for early elections is rising

However, analysts note that political dynamics, legal developments, and campaign momentum could still reshape the landscape ahead of any vote.

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