Finance Minister Şimşek: Global conditions will be more supportive for Türkiye in 2026

Summary:

Türkiye’s Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said global economic conditions are likely to turn more supportive in 2026, as the country advances in its disinflation program and benefits from easing financial risks. Speaking at a MÜSİAD meeting, Şimşek warned that protectionism has become the new global “normal,” but argued that regional integration, energy investments, and structural reforms could open a major opportunity window for Türkiye.

Türkiye’s Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek delivered a broad assessment of the domestic and global economic outlook on January 9, 2026, at a meeting of the Müstakil Sanayici ve İşadamları Derneği (MÜSİAD). His remarks came against a backdrop of rising geopolitical risks, persistent global inflation pressures, and intensifying trade protectionism.

“The post-war global order is cracking”

Offering a stark analysis of the international system, Şimşek said the global economic and political order built after World War II is “cracking.” He likened the current period to the 1930s, when economic instability and protectionist policies peaked, arguing that trade barriers and inward-looking policies are no longer temporary shocks but have become the “new normal.”

In this environment, Şimşek stressed that regional integration will be critical for Türkiye. As global trade becomes increasingly fragmented, he said Türkiye must leverage its geographic position, production capacity, and regional ties more effectively to mitigate external shocks.

Disinflation to open a major opportunity window

Turning to the domestic outlook, Şimşek struck a more optimistic tone. He said the ongoing disinflation process is expected to open a significant opportunity window for the Turkish economy, provided policy discipline is maintained.

The finance minister emphasized that structural transformation remains a core pillar of the government’s economic strategy, adding that technology and productivity gains will play a central role alongside macroeconomic stabilization.

2026 seen as a turning point for energy and green transition

Şimşek also highlighted energy and environmental policies, describing 2026 as a critical year for both energy security and the green transition. He said strategic energy investments are beginning to bear fruit, noting that key nuclear energy projects are expected to reach important milestones within the year.

At the same time, he said reforms related to water management and broader environmental governance are continuing without interruption, underlining that the green transition is being addressed in a comprehensive manner rather than through energy policy alone.

Inflation expected to fall below 20% in 2026

On inflation, Şimşek said he believes consumer price growth could fall below 20% in 2026, provided the kind of economic shocks seen last year are not repeated. He added that both domestic and external conditions appear increasingly supportive of further disinflation.

According to Şimşek, concerns over foreign exchange reserves in financial markets have largely eased, while Türkiye’s country risk premium, as measured by credit default swaps (CDS), has declined significantly. These developments, he said, are improving overall financial conditions and investor sentiment.

Looking ahead, Şimşek argued that the global macroeconomic environment in 2026 is likely to become more favorable for Türkiye, potentially providing additional support to the ongoing economic program.

Signs of normalization in the housing market

Commenting on the housing sector, Şimşek said the gap between housing prices and rents has begun to narrow as new supply comes on stream. As a result, he said a “serious normalization” should be expected in rent inflation in the period ahead.

Overall, Şimşek’s remarks suggest that while short-term risks persist due to global uncertainty and protectionism, Türkiye’s economic trajectory could benefit from disinflation, easing financial pressures, and strategic investments—particularly as global conditions turn more supportive in 2026.

Turkish press sources

PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.

Follow our English YouTube channel (REAL TURKEY):
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg

Twitter: @AtillaEng
Facebook: Real Turkey Channel: https://www.facebook.com/realturkeychannel/***