Erdoğan Signals “On-Time Elections” — But Path to Candidacy Remains Unclear

By Murat Yetkin, Yetkin Report, click the link to read English articles

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has reaffirmed that Türkiye’s next general elections will be held “on time,” but left unanswered the critical question of how he could legally run again under the current constitution. The issue is emerging as a central political debate ahead of 2028.

Erdoğan Confirms Elections Will Be Held “On Time”

Speaking after an AK Party parliamentary group meeting on April 15, Erdoğan endorsed recent statements by ruling bloc figures that elections would proceed as scheduled.

His remarks echoed earlier comments by:

• Ömer Çelik
• Devlet Bahçeli

Both had rejected opposition calls for early or snap elections, instead emphasizing that the vote would take place at the constitutionally designated time.

This points to a likely election date of May 2028, marking five years since the previous vote.

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The Unanswered Question: Can Erdoğan Run Again?

While Erdoğan confirmed the timing of elections, he did not respond directly to a key follow-up question:

👉 Would there be a legal or political formula allowing him to run for another term?

Under Türkiye’s current constitutional framework:

• A president can serve two terms
• Erdoğan is already in his second term following the 2023 election

This means that, without constitutional change or specific legal mechanisms, he would not be eligible to run again.

Early Election Scenario: A Possible Workaround

One widely discussed option involves an early election decision by parliament.

If parliament calls early elections:

• The current term is technically shortened
• Erdoğan could legally qualify for another candidacy

However, this requires:

• A parliamentary majority of at least 360 votes
• Agreement within the ruling alliance

The political debate now centers on whether such a move would still be considered “on time” or constitutionally “early.”

Constitutional Amendment: Another Path

A second possibility is a constitutional change.

This could involve:

• Revising term limits
• Modifying the presidential system
• Transitioning to a different governance model

Some analysts speculate that a shift toward a semi-presidential system could be considered, potentially resetting eligibility rules.

However, such a move would likely require:

• Broad political consensus
• Possible support from opposition parties

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Extreme Scenario: Postponement Under Wartime Conditions

A more controversial option exists under Article 78 of the Constitution, which allows elections to be postponed in wartime.

In theory:

• Parliament could delay elections by one year
• The extension could be renewed

But this scenario is widely seen as politically risky and unlikely, as it would require extraordinary circumstances and could trigger significant domestic and international backlash.

Political Calculations Within the Ruling Bloc

The ruling alliance—comprising the AK Party and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)—has consistently signaled its preference for Erdoğan to remain in power.

At the same time, opposition leaders, including Özgür Özel, have raised the possibility of early elections as part of broader political strategy.

The debate reflects a deeper uncertainty:

• Will elections proceed strictly within current constitutional limits?
• Or will a political/legal adjustment emerge before 2028?

Strategic Context: Stability vs. Flexibility

Erdoğan’s emphasis on “on-time elections” also aligns with a broader strategy of projecting political stability.

Türkiye has sought to maintain a balanced foreign policy amid regional conflicts, including tensions involving Iran and Ukraine, avoiding direct military involvement while preserving economic resilience.

This approach may also influence domestic political timing and decision-making.

Outlook: A Formula Yet to Be Revealed

For now, the key question remains unresolved:

👉 How can Erdoğan legally run again if elections are held on schedule?

Possible scenarios include:

• Early elections initiated by parliament
• Constitutional reform
• A new political framework

Until a clear path emerges, speculation will continue to dominate political discourse in Türkiye.