Türkiye’s Unseen Power: From Tactical Disruptor to Strategic Architect

In today’s multipolar world, Türkiye is proving that real power lies not just in being invited to the table, but in having the ability to flip it—if necessary.

By Mehmet Öğütçü
Adapted from Yetkin Report

Beyond the Table: Türkiye’s Quiet Ascent

In the 21st-century geopolitical arena, power is no longer defined solely by formal inclusion. It’s measured by the ability to shape events from the sidelines—or even disrupt them outright. Türkiye, once seen as a peripheral player, has now emerged as a pivotal force in regional and global affairs. Whether included or not, Ankara is increasingly impossible to ignore.

Some countries are invited to write the rules. Others are forced to play by them. Türkiye belongs to a third category: those capable of bending or rewriting the rules entirely.

At the heart of this transformation is not only Türkiye’s assertive diplomacy and military footprint, but also its revitalized National Intelligence Organization (MİT)—a multi-domain force blending tactical agility with long-term strategic vision.

The Eastern Mediterranean: From Exclusion to Influence

Few regions reflect this power shift more clearly than the Eastern Mediterranean.

When the EastMed Gas Forum was launched in 2019, Türkiye was deliberately left out. Regional rivals—Greece, Southern Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt—sought to carve out an energy axis with European backing. Türkiye was isolated, and many viewed this as a strategic victory.

But it didn’t last.

Without Türkiye’s logistical support and regional influence:

• Pipeline projects stalled due to financing gaps.

• Energy diplomacy failed to translate into broader security architecture.

• Alliances weakened under the strain of regional instability.

By 2023, with war in Gaza and Ankara normalizing ties with Cairo, Türkiye re-entered the conversation—this time not as an outsider but as a potential convening force. Today, quiet discussions are underway in places like Rabat, where Türkiye’s leadership is not just tolerated, but sought.

Tactical Disruption in Action

Türkiye’s disruptive capacity extends far beyond diplomacy:

• Libya: Turkish drones and intelligence operations helped halt General Khalifa Haftar’s advance. Türkiye now engages both sides of the conflict, earning indispensable status.

• Nagorno-Karabakh: Turkish support underpinned Azerbaijan’s 2020 military victory over Armenia. Russian acquiescence, coupled with the sidelining of France and the OSCE, highlighted Türkiye’s growing regional clout.

• Russia–Ukraine: Türkiye brokered grain corridor deals, enabled prisoner swaps, and hosted covert U.S.-Russia intelligence talks in Istanbul—solidifying its role as a mediator between global powers.

• Africa: From Somalia to Niger and Chad, Türkiye is expanding its reach in defense, infrastructure, and humanitarian sectors. MİT and Turkish development agencies are replacing European influence, particularly France’s.

From Spoiler to Shaper

Being a spoiler is powerful—but also limited. Türkiye’s challenge is not just to disrupt, but to design.

In Iraq and Syria, targeted Turkish strikes have undermined PKK/YPG strongholds, complicating U.S.-supported Kurdish governance plans. Ankara has forced its terms into regional negotiations once again.

In Gaza, Türkiye’s ties with Hamas—while controversial—grant it influence behind the scenes, even as formal negotiations exclude it.

And within NATO, Türkiye delayed Finland and Sweden’s accession until it secured key concessions on security—proving its ability to block consensus in Western institutions until its concerns are addressed.

Türkiye’s Strategic Choice: Build or Break?

Türkiye’s foreign policy is increasingly defined by strategic autonomy. It blends diplomacy, intelligence, commerce, and soft power into a flexible, multifaceted approach. But this disruptive model faces a critical inflection point.

Does Türkiye continue as a tactical spoiler—breaking exclusionary structures to force relevance?

Or does it evolve into a strategic designer—crafting inclusive frameworks that benefit all parties?

Evidence suggests Türkiye is leaning toward the latter. But caution is essential. Overplaying its hand could alienate partners. Real power lies not in intimidation, but in being sought out as a credible, constructive actor.

Leadership in the New Order

In today’s fractured world, the countries that matter are not just those with military might—but those with the legitimacy and finesse to mediate, stabilize, and lead.

Türkiye has shown it can break through when locked out. But lasting influence depends on building something others want to join.

With its regional legitimacy, strategic geography, and growing institutional clout, Türkiye has a rare opportunity: to move from tactical disruptor to indispensable architect of the new global order.

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