Türkiye–Israel Tensions Escalate Amid Syria Power Struggle Following Assad’s Fall

Amid the dramatic power vacuum left by Bashar al-Assad’s collapse in late 2024, Türkiye and Israel are now openly jostling for influence in post-Assad Syria. The two countries, whose relations have sharply deteriorated since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza, convened in Azerbaijan last week in an attempt to deconflict rising military tensions, particularly regarding their growing presence in northern and southern Syria.

Clashing Agendas in Syria

The trilateral void left by weakened Iranian and Russian influence has seen both Türkiye and Israel aggressively expand their military footprints. Ankara maintains close ties to Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa—a controversial figure with past links to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—and has provided training, weapons, and basing support to Syrian forces and its proxy, the Syrian National Army (SNA).

Israel, in contrast, has ramped up its air campaign, targeting weapons depots and bases—some of which Türkiye reportedly intended to utilize or upgrade. The Israeli objective is to establish a secure buffer zone near the Golan Heights and prevent Syrian territory from becoming a staging ground for attacks.

Diplomatic Mediation and Turkish Response

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned last week:

“We cannot watch Syria be exposed one more time to domestic turmoil… a provocation that would threaten Türkiye’s national security.”

Following the airstrikes, Türkiye condemned Israel’s actions, viewing them as a direct threat. Reports indicate U.S. President Donald Trump offered to mediate the dispute, praising Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and urging Benjamin Netanyahu to “be reasonable.” The move drew criticism, particularly in light of Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest and ensuing unrest in Türkiye.

U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Confirmed

As tensions peak, U.S. officials reportedly informed Israeli counterparts of plans to begin a phased troop withdrawal from Syria within two months, fulfilling Trump’s longstanding pledge to end “forever wars.” The decision follows a CENTCOM-brokered agreement integrating the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the new Syrian military. This area includes 95% of Syria’s oil and gas reserves, currently under SDF control.

The Pentagon’s withdrawal plan echoes earlier attempts in 2018 and 2019, when residual U.S. forces—initially 200–400 but later revealed to be nearly 2,000—were left behind. Many fear that this exit could embolden both Türkiye and Islamic State (ISIS) remnants.

Israeli Concerns & Strategic Vacuum

Israeli officials are lobbying Washington to halt the pullout, fearing:

• A resurgent Islamic State in unguarded prisons

• Türkiye’s unchallenged military expansion

• Disruption of Israeli air operations across southern Syria

Israel’s strategic calculus sees Türkiye as a long-term regional competitor, especially with Erdoğan’s assertive posturing and Türkiye’s pitch as a NATO-aligned defense partner for Europe amid U.S. retrenchment.

Next Steps: Dialogue or Collision?

The Azerbaijan meeting aimed to build a deconfliction mechanism between Israeli and Turkish forces, mirroring previous U.S.-Russia coordination. While some progress was made in establishing communication protocols, no formal military agreement has been disclosed.

President Erdoğan’s post-meeting remarks captured the friction:

“Israel is attempting to sabotage Syria’s revolution. Anyone seeking to inflict more pain on the Syrian people must be prepared to pay the price.”

The path ahead remains fraught, with both nations vying to shape Syria’s future. Whether diplomacy will prevail or regional escalation looms depends on evolving power dynamics—and Washington’s willingness to remain in the game.