Netanyahu Faces Mounting Pressure as Opposition Pushes to Dissolve Parliament

Ultra-Orthodox parties issue ultimatum over military exemptions while early elections gain public support

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing intensifying political pressure as opposition leader Yair Lapid prepares to table a vote next week to dissolve the Knesset, potentially triggering snap elections that polls suggest Netanyahu’s coalition would lose.

Cracks are widening within Netanyahu’s right-wing and ultra-Orthodox coalition, with United Torah Judaism threatening to quit the government unless a long-promised military exemption law for ultra-Orthodox men is passed. If the law fails, the party has signaled it will back Lapid’s motion to bring down the government.

“This Knesset is finished. It has nowhere to go,” Lapid said on Wednesday, reiterating calls for early elections as dissatisfaction grows over the government’s handling of the war in Gaza and the military draft law.

Early Election Support Growing Among Public

According to a Channel 12 poll released this week, 57% of Israelis support dissolving the Knesset and heading to early elections, with only 33% opposed. Public frustration has spiked over Netanyahu’s leadership during and after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, which killed over 1,200 Israelis and plunged the country into a prolonged military campaign in Gaza.

The poll also revealed that 55% of respondents oppose ultra-Orthodox parties joining the next government, while 43% named the failures of October 7 as the top issue in any upcoming vote.

Despite growing pressure, Netanyahu has remained publicly silent on the potential collapse of his government. Behind the scenes, sources say negotiations are ongoing, but the fragility of the coalition—held together by just an 8-seat majority—has rarely been more exposed.

Ultra-Orthodox Draft Exemption Law Divides Coalition

The draft exemption for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men has long been a flashpoint. Ultra-Orthodox parties demand full exemptions for seminary students, but secular and nationalist parties within the coalition insist the status quo is untenable.

Coalition member Ohad Tal from the Religious Zionism party accused United Torah Judaism of blackmail and warned that “blanket exemptions can no longer stand.” Analysts say Netanyahu may be gambling that the Haredi parties are bluffing, especially given that polls suggest they too would lose seats in early elections.

Israel’s next election is not officially due until 2026, but few Israeli governments complete a full term. As protests intensify and families of hostages held in Gaza demand action, Netanyahu’s political survival appears increasingly uncertain.

Azerbaijan Quietly Mediating Between Türkiye and Israel in Syria

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is emerging as a behind-the-scenes mediator between Türkiye and Israel as the two regional powers jockey for influence in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024.

Azerbaijan’s presidential foreign policy adviser Hikmet Hajiyev confirmed that Baku has hosted at least three rounds of talks between Israeli and Turkish officials in recent months. Both countries maintain military operations in Syria and view the power vacuum as a direct security concern.

“Azerbaijan is pursuing quiet diplomacy to create a model that respects the concerns of both parties,” said Farid Shafiyev, chairman of the Baku-based Center for Analysis of International Relations.

Israel has carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria in recent years, claiming to prevent weapons from reaching terrorist groups and to protect the Druze minority. Ankara, for its part, has solidified control over large swathes of northern Syria and is seeking to expand its presence around Palmyra and the T4 airbase.

Azerbaijan is well positioned to facilitate dialogue: It is a close ally of Türkiye and enjoys strong economic and military ties with Israel, including supplying a significant portion of its oil imports.

Zaur Mammadov, chairman of the Baku Political Scientists Club, said Azerbaijan’s mediation is a “strategic role” that reflects its rising diplomatic weight in the region.

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