Turkey Inflation Expectations: Year-End Forecast at 32%

A new survey of 19 financial institutions shows that Turkish economists expect inflation to rise by 2.71% month-on-month in October, with annual inflation projected at 33.1%, signaling a slight moderation compared to September’s pace.

October Inflation Outlook

According to the median estimate, monthly inflation is expected to come in at 2.71%, while yearly inflation is projected to reach 33.1%.

• The lowest monthly forecast among participants was 2%,

• The highest monthly forecast stood at 2.95%.

On an annual basis, forecasts ranged between 31.8% and 33.4% for October.

In September, consumer prices had increased by 3.23% month-on-month and 33.29% year-on-year, according to official data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).

Long-Term Inflation Projections

Survey participants also shared their year-end inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026:

• 2025 year-end inflation: Median expectation at 32%, with forecasts ranging from 30.2% to 34.7%.

• 2026 year-end inflation: Median expectation at 23%, with estimates ranging between 20.2% and 25.1%.

Economists note that the disinflation trend will depend largely on tight monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and stability in the exchange rate over the coming quarters.

While inflation expectations remain elevated, the market consensus suggests a gradual slowdown through 2025–2026, aligning with the Central Bank’s tightening path. However, sticky core inflation and cost-driven pressures could challenge the pace of disinflation.