Turkey 3Q25 Earnings Season Preview: Industrials Stabilize, Banks Regain Margins
earnings season
Joint Insights from Gedik Invest and Marbaş Invest
Industrial Outlook: Signs of Stabilization in a Fragmented Landscape
As the third-quarter 2025 earnings season approaches, analysts from Gedik Invest and Marbaş Invest highlight a cautiously improving picture across Turkey’s industrial and consumer sectors, with several companies showing signs of bottoming out amid still-muted domestic demand and external headwinds.
Weaker Performers
According to Gedik Invest, Kordsa is likely to report a net loss due to soft demand and a gradual ramp-up of its Indonesia and Thailand production facilities following flood disruptions. Petkim is also expected to post negative operating profitability, pressured by weak petrochemical margins. Orge Enerji may see weaker earnings due to last year’s exceptionally high base, while Türk Traktör is forecast to experience a real contraction in financials caused by lower sales volumes and capacity utilization.
Still, analysts expect unit profitability for Türk Traktör to improve quarter-on-quarter, supported by pricing discipline and better inventory management, despite a steep year-on-year decline.
Stronger and Bottoming-Out Names
A more encouraging picture emerges among select industrials. Enka İnşaat is expected to post stronger year-on-year operational results on the back of a larger construction backlog, improved energy operations, and investment gains supported by a weaker lira. Galata Wind is also poised to deliver stronger results, reflecting higher power generation and reduced financing costs.
Among manufacturers, Brisa’s profitability is projected to return to positive territory, driven by strong EBITDA growth, improving domestic demand, and tight cost control. Consumer-facing names such as Ülker, Coca-Cola İçecek, BIM, and Şok Marketler are expected to post solid operating results, reflecting resilient demand and margin discipline in the FMCG and retail segments.
In transport, TAV Airports stands out as a relative outperformer. Despite weak yields across the airline industry, TAV’s FX-based business model and traffic growth—7% y/y increase in international passengers and 6% in total movements—should yield positive financial results, outpacing listed carriers.
Telecoms and Automotive: Resilient Earnings Momentum
Telecom operators Turkcell and Türk Telekom are expected to maintain resilient earnings through solid real growth in subscriber revenue and disciplined cost management.
In autos, Tofaş and Doğuş Otomotiv are seen as the top performers this quarter, supported by real EBITDA growth and a stabilizing sales environment. The full consolidation of Stellantis is expected to further lift Tofaş’s topline and bottom line performance, even if margins remain moderate. Doğuş Otomotiv should benefit from a low comparison base and the absence of one-off items, resulting in strong real growth in net income.
In steel, Kocaer Çelik remains well-positioned with its export-oriented, value-added business model, though analysts expect flat profitability despite a modest quarter-on-quarter improvement in sales volume.
Banking Sector: Margin Recovery Gains Traction
Gedik and Marbaş analysts see the third quarter marking a turning point for banks, with net interest margins (NIMs) recovering after the July policy rate cut eased funding costs. The widening TL loan-to-deposit spreads are expected to drive a sequential rebound in profitability, while non-interest income normalizes after an exceptionally strong first half.
Net fee and commission income should remain robust, supported by retail and transaction growth, but operating expenses are likely to rise above inflation. Meanwhile, the increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) continues to pressure the cost of risk (CoR).
Trading income is set to moderate as swap costs climb, but overall, sector earnings remain strong.
Analysts highlight Halkbank, Akbank, Yapı Kredi, and Vakıfbank as likely leaders in quarterly net income growth, while Albaraka, İşbank, TSKB, and Garanti BBVA may see declines due to a high comparison base from Q2. Despite this, Garanti BBVA and TSKB are expected to outperform peers with above-sector ROEs.
In aggregate, banks under coverage are projected to deliver an average 4% q/q rise and a 64% y/y increase in net income.
Outlook: Gradual Normalization into Year-End
Both Gedik and Marbaş Invest expect H2 2025 to bring improved momentum across industrials, autos, and banks as macro conditions stabilize and the lira’s depreciation supports export competitiveness. However, analysts caution that domestic demand remains fragile, and margin recovery may be gradual given persistent cost pressures and uneven global demand.
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