Survey: 7 in 10 Turks Don’t Believe Inflation Will Fall

A new survey by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) reveals deepening public skepticism over the country’s disinflation efforts, with more than 70% of households believing inflation will not decline over the next 12 months.

Public confidence in inflation control remains low

According to the CBRT’s May 2025 “Sectoral Inflation Expectations” report, household expectations for inflation 12 months ahead increased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.9%, while the percentage of citizens who believe inflation will decrease dropped to 27.8%.

In contrast, inflation expectations among market participants declined slightly by 0.5 points to 25.1%, and the real sector’s outlook also improved modestly, with expectations falling by 0.7 points to 41%.

However, household confidence in inflation control continues to erode. In May, 72.21% of Turkish citizens said they do not believe inflation will fall in the next year. This figure had already surged to 72.76% in April, following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on March 19, a politically sensitive event that may have contributed to rising public pessimism.

In March 2025, that figure stood at 68.69%, meaning the level of distrust in disinflation policies has increased by more than 3.5 percentage points in just two months.

Political events shake economic expectations

Analysts note that this growing pessimism is not solely driven by economic data. Political developments—particularly the controversial detention of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu—have coincided with a spike in inflation skepticism.

Political economist İnan Mutlu commented on social media that “there’s a notable increase in pessimism following İmamoğlu’s arrest,” suggesting that public sentiment around inflation is closely tied to perceived institutional trust and political stability.

Expectations for stable or falling inflation remain a minority view

Turkey’s Disinflation Path Shows Progress, But Risks and Market Volatility Remain

The CBRT survey also showed that only 27.79% of respondents expect inflation to remain stable or decline over the next year. This indicates that despite official disinflation targets and a tightening monetary policy, most households remain unconvinced of its effectiveness.

The 12-month inflation forecast from households currently stands at 59.86%, underlining the vast gap between public expectations and official projections, which aim to reduce inflation to 41.5% by end-2025, 17.5% by 2026, and 8.5% by 2027.

Key Takeaways:

• 72.21% of Turks do not expect inflation to fall in the coming year.

• Household inflation forecasts rose to 59.9% in May.

• İmamoğlu’s arrest may have exacerbated economic pessimism.

• Public trust in monetary policy remains fragile.

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