MARKET WRAP | BIST Bulls Hold Ground as Easing Bets Deepen

Support at 10,150 proves resilient; foreign inflows strengthen risk appetite

Borsa Istanbul wrapped up Thursday’s session on a positive note, with the BIST 100 Index rising 0.39% to close at 10,228 points. While intraday selling pressure tested investor resolve, underlying momentum remained intact, particularly after Turkey’s June inflation figures came in below expectations, reinforcing bets for an interest rate cut from the Central Bank later this month.

Across multiple brokerages, a cautiously optimistic tone dominated commentary, with analysts highlighting resilient technical support zones, foreign investor interest, and improving sentiment fueled by macro tailwinds.

Mild Inflation Surprise Fuels Easing Optimism

June CPI data showed a monthly increase of 1.37%, below both market consensus of 1.6% and internal forecasts from several brokerages. The annual inflation rate dipped from 35.41% in May to 35.05% in June. Core inflation came in at 35.64% year-on-year, while food inflation declined from 32.87% to 30.20%.

Producer prices, however, moved higher—rising 2.46% monthly and accelerating annually to 24.45%. Still, the softening in consumer inflation is seen as bolstering the case for monetary easing at the CBRT’s July 24 policy meeting.

Analysts at Meksa Yatırım suggest that while the inflation print was positive, much of the policy-driven optimism may already be priced in. They note that post-data selling pressure was moderate, implying that investors now await fresh macro triggers before extending the rally.

Technical Picture: Momentum Intact Above 10,150

Yapı Kredi Yatırım emphasized that the BIST 100 continues to maintain upward momentum as long as it remains above the 10,150 level. Intraday corrections—viewed as natural profit-taking after a sharp rally since Monday—have thus far been met with buying interest.

Should the index remain comfortably above the 10,150 support, they foresee a short-term push toward the 10,750 resistance level. On the downside, the psychological 10,000 mark is identified as a broader defensive line that could absorb deeper pullbacks.

Şeker Yatırım echoed similar views, identifying 10,350 as the first critical resistance level. A breakout above this point, they argue, could unlock momentum toward the 10,400–10,500 band. However, they caution that certain technical indicators are entering overbought territory, raising the likelihood of intermittent profit-taking. Still, pullbacks to the 10,000–10,100 zone are seen as potential entry opportunities.

Sector Rotation and Foreign Flows

While banking stocks faced notable selling pressure—limiting the index’s upside—industrial names and select technology shares provided a cushion. Ünlü & Co pointed to the industrial index’s near 1% gain as a key factor helping the broader market retain altitude.

Elsewhere, A1 Capital reported a volatile session, with the index swinging between 10,180 and 10,379 during the day. Trading volume remained robust at ₺120.3 billion, with 65 stocks closing higher versus 32 in the red. Aselsan, Kuyaş Yatırım, and Tüpraş were top contributors to the index, while Garanti Bank, BİM, and Yapı Kredi Bank weighed negatively.

Info Yatırım noted that foreign investor appetite remains firm. According to data from the Central Bank, international investors purchased $247 million in equities and $305 million in local bonds during the week of June 27. The fading of geopolitical tensions—particularly the conclusion of the Iran-Israel war—appears to have revived foreign interest in Turkish assets.

At the same time, the flat performance in currency markets and a slight uptick in benchmark bond yields indicate a balanced macro backdrop, with no major distortions in capital markets.

Caution Emerges Amid “Rally Fatigue”

Despite the broadly bullish tone, some brokerages have started flagging signs of “rally fatigue.” Meksa Yatırım warned that the rapid ascent from early in the week has begun to lose steam. With limited new data due before the July 24 rate decision, profit-taking may re-emerge in the short term.

That said, they do not expect the sell-offs to deepen significantly, as long as supportive technical levels hold. The perception that a rate cut is now increasingly likely continues to act as a backstop to bearish momentum.

Meanwhile, Yapı Kredi Yatırım highlighted that the rally has yet to show signs of exhaustion at key support levels. Any weakness toward the 10,150–10,000 zone is seen as an opportunity rather than a red flag.

Outlook: Consolidation Before Breakout?

Looking ahead, market participants appear divided between those expecting further consolidation and those positioning for a new upward leg. The consensus remains that barring a negative surprise in global markets or local politics, BIST is well-positioned to grind higher.

With global liquidity still accommodative and local disinflation gaining credibility, the path of least resistance remains upward—though at a potentially more measured pace.