Hannah Lucinda Smith: The Secrets Behind Erdoğan’s Staying Power

In a region defined by upheaval—from the fall of Assad in Syria to the collapse of Hamas and Hezbollah—Turkey stands as a striking exception. Amid shifting borders, toppled regimes, and a growing war between Iran and Israel, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has not only held onto power, but solidified it. While the Middle East is redrawn, Erdoğan remains a fixture—an increasingly central figure both at home and on the global stage.

A President Who Outlasts Revolutions

Unlike many of his counterparts in the region who have been swept away by conflict or popular unrest, Erdoğan has managed to rewrite the rules of political longevity. Through successive constitutional changes and tactical purges of rivals within his own party and the opposition, he has reshaped the Turkish political system to his advantage. Crucially, he has also elevated Turkey’s diplomatic standing.

By positioning Ankara as a mediator between warring powers—hosting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and serving as a back-channel between Washington and Tehran—Erdoğan has muted international outrage over domestic crackdowns. A decade ago, the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu would have drawn heavy criticism from the West. Today, such concerns are overshadowed by Erdoğan’s perceived utility in global diplomacy.

Erdoğan now talks of Turkey as a “hub of peace diplomacy.” Once isolated at NATO summits, he is now met with deference by world leaders. With another round of constitutional reform in sight—one that could again reset presidential term limits—there is little to suggest he plans to step down anytime soon.

A Democratic Outlier Who Plays the Game

Erdoğan’s endurance is all the more remarkable given that he remains, at least nominally, an elected leader in a republic. Unlike the monarchies that weathered the Arab Spring, most republics saw their authoritarian leaders fall. Erdoğan, by contrast, has survived without ever winning a landslide, often facing credible challengers.

What has kept him in power is a combination of media control, manipulation of electoral institutions, and political agility. He has turned narrow margins into lasting mandates. He is, above all, a master pragmatist—an ideologue when convenient, but never dogmatic.

In his early years, Erdoğan cast himself as a reformist—curbing the military’s influence, opening space for Kurdish rights, and courting EU accession. But as the Arab Spring faded into Islamist backlash and regional turmoil, he shifted gears. Embracing Islamist rhetoric and aligning with the Muslim Brotherhood, he rebranded himself as the defender of Sunni grievance across the Middle East. At home, he partnered with far-right nationalists in 2015 to maintain parliamentary control, a move that led to renewed crackdowns on Kurdish political and civil rights.

Pivoting Toward the Kurds, Cracking Down on Secularists

In a striking political reversal this year, Erdoğan has brokered a new ceasefire with the PKK, the Kurdish separatist group long designated as a terrorist organization. Now, having neutralized that front, he has turned his focus to Turkey’s secular opposition—most notably with the arrest of İmamoğlu, the popular mayor of Istanbul.

In yet another twist, the pro-Kurdish HDP (now under a new banner) appears open to supporting Erdoğan’s next constitutional reform package—despite years of state repression. This unlikely alliance underscores Erdoğan’s ability to shift alliances to suit his goals, often turning former enemies into tactical allies.

The Fidan-Kalın Factor: Turkey’s Diplomatic Braintrust

Much of Erdoğan’s renewed international relevance can be credited to his inner circle of seasoned diplomats. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, once the country’s intelligence chief, is a key player. Having worked in NATO and the Australian embassy in Ankara, Fidan is respected in both Western and Middle Eastern capitals. His successor at the intelligence agency, Ibrahim Kalın, is similarly well connected. US-educated and a fluent communicator, Kalın is familiar in Washington and Brussels alike.

Together, Fidan and Kalın have been instrumental in brokering talks between Russia and Ukraine, negotiating the Black Sea grain corridor, and securing Turkey a pivotal role in post-Assad Syria. For many European governments, Erdoğan’s Ankara now serves as a crucial link to Damascus and the broader region.

A Leader Shaped by Fortune and Timing

Perhaps the most underrated element of Erdoğan’s staying power is timing. In the early 2010s, when his authoritarian drift drew sharp criticism, Erdoğan was viewed as an outlier in a democratic West. His overtures to Vladimir Putin in 2016 were seen as a threat to NATO unity.

Yet the global context has changed. With Europe and the US now desperate for regional stabilizers amid rising threats from Iran, Russia, and beyond, Erdoğan has become indispensable. Ironically, the very moves that once distanced him from the West now enhance his strategic value.

As the Middle East enters another dangerous phase, Erdoğan’s Turkey is no longer just surviving—it is indispensable. A new phase of constitutional engineering may soon entrench his position even further. For better or worse, Erdoğan is here to stay.

From Engelberg’s Ideas

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