GSI ANALYSIS: Turkey’s European Dream Fades: A Candidate Without a Path

Nearly four decades after applying for EU membership, Turkey finds itself in limbo—still an official candidate, but with little hope of accession. Despite economic interdependence and shared geopolitical interests, political mistrust and democratic backsliding continue to block progress.

When then-Prime Minister Turgut Özal applied for membership in the European Economic Community in 1987, he acknowledged the journey would be “long and narrow.” Today, those words ring truer than ever. Turkey’s EU accession process, once filled with optimism and democratic momentum, has stalled indefinitely. As of 2025, negotiations remain frozen, the European Parliament has reiterated concerns over Ankara’s democratic erosion, and the Turkish public—though still pro-European in spirit—has lost faith in the possibility of joining the bloc.

How Did We Get Here? The Roots of the Accession Stalemate

Turkey’s EU aspirations were once closely tied to its Western identity, forged by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s founding vision of a secular, modern republic aligned with the Euro-Atlantic world. Turkey joined NATO in 1952, hosts Allied Land Command, and possesses Europe’s largest standing army. Yet, none of these strategic credentials have translated into political integration.

The freeze in accession negotiations began in 2018 and was reaffirmed in May 2025. Critics in Brussels blame Ankara’s democratic regression, while Ankara sees hypocrisy and shifting goalposts—especially from countries like France and Germany, who began promoting a “privileged partnership” instead of full membership in the early 2000s, despite Turkey’s sweeping reforms at the time.

Additionally, Greece and Cyprus have systematically blocked progress, using their bilateral disputes with Ankara—particularly over the status of Northern Cyprus—as leverage. British diplomat Sir Peter Westmacott famously noted, “Once Cyprus was in [the EU], the rules of the game changed.”

The Cyprus Factor: A Persistent Obstacle

The division of Cyprus remains a core issue. The island has been split since 1974, following a Greek-led coup and subsequent Turkish military intervention. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), recognized only by Turkey, continues to be excluded from international legitimacy. The Republic of Cyprus joined the EU in 2004, and reunification talks have repeatedly failed.

This unresolved dispute not only poisons EU-Turkey relations but fuels Turkish skepticism toward the bloc’s fairness and objectivity. The perception of being unfairly treated has amplified nationalist and Euroskeptic voices in Turkey.

Europe’s Political Shift: Enlargement for Ukraine, Not for Turkey

The contrast is stark: Ukraine was granted a “European perspective” just four months after the Russian invasion. Turkey, a decades-long candidate and a frontline NATO ally, receives no such warmth. The rise of right-wing populism in Europe has hardened resistance to Turkey’s membership. Even European Commission officials now hesitate to refer to Turkey as a “candidate country.”

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has questioned the EU’s strategic vision, arguing that Europe is missing an opportunity to deepen cooperation with a vital regional power.

Ankara’s Democratic Retreat: A Key Roadblock

Blame is not one-sided. Despite rhetorical commitment to EU membership, President Erdoğan’s government has steadily dismantled democratic norms. The March 2025 arrest of Istanbul Mayor and presidential contender Ekrem İmamoğlu marked a new low. Since then, authorities have purged his staff, blocked his social media, and banned public images or videos of him.

The European Parliament’s rapporteur on Turkey, Nacho Sánchez Amor, summed it up bluntly: the accession process is failing because of Ankara’s actions—not Brussels’.

Economic Ties: A Lifeline Amid Political Deadlock

Yet the picture is not entirely bleak. Turkey and the EU are deeply economically intertwined. The EU is Turkey’s largest trading partner, and Turkey ranks fifth for the EU. The 1995 Customs Union remains in effect, and over half of Turkey’s foreign direct investment comes from European sources. Five million Turks live across EU member states, anchoring personal, cultural, and commercial links.

Turkey plays a crucial role in regional security—countering Russian aggression, managing Middle Eastern instability, and curbing irregular migration. The 2016 refugee deal and the EU’s €1 billion aid pledge in late 2024 illustrate how shared interests can override political friction.

Strategic but Transactional: A Redefined Relationship?

The evolving relationship is increasingly transactional. While accession seems frozen, functional cooperation continues on issues like trade, migration, and security. Turkey perceives the EU as opportunistic—interested only when it suits Brussels’ immediate needs. For instance, European silence on Erdoğan’s democratic violations often coincides with critical geostrategic moments.

Ursula von der Leyen’s refugee support package in 2024 and renewed defense collaboration amid U.S. retrenchment show Europe can pragmatically engage Turkey—even if political integration remains off the table.

Future Scenarios: Three Possible Paths

1. Most Likely: Strategic Stalemate, Functional Engagement
Turkey retains its candidate status in name only. Accession talks remain frozen, but both sides continue cooperating where interests align—trade, migration, and defense. This is the most plausible short- to medium-term outcome.

2. Less Likely: Reboot of Full Accession Talks
In this optimistic scenario, Turkey enacts democratic reforms and the EU drops its political resistance, reigniting accession talks. This would require resolving the Cyprus dispute, Greek-Turkish tensions, and convincing skeptics like France and Germany. Though mutually beneficial, this scenario is politically improbable today.

3. Least Likely: Formal Termination of Candidacy
A full termination of Turkey’s EU bid would mark a diplomatic rupture with long-lasting consequences. While such a move would appease certain political factions in Europe, it would be deeply unpopular in Turkey—especially among pro-European segments of society. Both sides have strong incentives to avoid this outcome, making it the least likely.

Conclusion: A Mutually Necessary Yet Unfulfilled Partnership

Turkey and the EU are caught in a paradox—geopolitically and economically intertwined, yet politically estranged. The dream of full EU membership may be deferred, perhaps indefinitely, but the need for engagement remains urgent. Strategic pragmatism—not idealism—now defines a complex, uneasy but indispensable relationship.

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