Mehmet Ogutcu: Israel-Iran Conflict – Will It Escalate, and What Does It Mean for Turkey?

The morning of June 13 jolted the world with a long-anticipated but unpredictable explosion. In a sweeping military operation dubbed Operation Rising Lion, Israel launched targeted airstrikes on Iran’s capital, Tehran, striking high-value military and nuclear targets. Among the first casualties were Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commander, the chief of general staff, and the air force commander. Will political leaders be next?

This military assault marks the opening salvo in what may be a new phase of protracted regional instability — one that could spiral into a broader conflict with global consequences for energy markets, diplomacy, and security.

Israel’s Justification: Preemptive or Provocative?

Israel justified the operation as a preemptive strike against what it deems an “existential threat” — Iran’s nuclear program. For years, Israeli officials, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu, have drawn red lines against Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity, especially following reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency suggesting accelerated nuclear development.

Although the United States has refrained from direct military involvement, Washington provided tactical support, including intelligence and strategic coordination. Reports suggest U.S. bases in the region have been placed on high alert. Despite backchannel efforts via Oman to de-escalate, Washington ultimately sought to project a veneer of restraint while maintaining operational readiness.

Reactions from the Gulf and Great Powers

Major actors such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, and China are monitoring developments closely. While Gulf nations may quietly welcome the weakening of Iranian power, they are equally wary of conflict spilling across the Strait of Hormuz.

Beijing and Moscow, which view Tehran as a critical node in Central Asia–Gulf–Europe energy corridors, are unlikely to endorse military escalation, preferring instead to preserve their strategic foothold in the region. Their current posture remains cautious yet self-interested.

Iran’s Retaliation and Israel’s Broader Strategy

Iran responded within hours, deploying hundreds of armed drones toward Israeli targets. While the effectiveness of these strikes remains unclear, the symbolism was unmistakable. Tehran accused the U.S. of complicity, while Washington maintained its formal distance — though few doubt the depth of Israeli-American coordination.

Beyond nuclear sites, Israel is also targeting Iran’s weakened Shiite proxy networks across Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. This signals a broader strategic goal: to dismantle Iran’s regional influence while showcasing Israel’s dominance.

The cumulative effect may push Iran toward even greater isolation — or worse, irrational escalation. Faced with an existential threat, Iran’s leadership could resort to reckless measures, forcing regional powers to reassess their strategies.

Oil, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Economic Fallout

Oil markets reacted swiftly. Brent crude jumped by 10% within hours of the attack. But the real disruption may come if Iran seeks to block or mine the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-third of global oil shipments pass.

“A $150-per-barrel scenario is no longer far-fetched,” warns Mehmet Ogutcu.

The economic impact would be profound — especially for import-dependent nations like Turkey, where 92% of oil needs are sourced externally. Rising energy import costs will strain Turkey’s current account balance, drive inflation higher, and complicate the Central Bank’s interest rate policies. The result: weakened consumer demand and industrial output.

Strategic Dilemmas and Diplomatic Openings for Turkey

Since the 1639 Treaty of Qasr-e Shirin, Turkey has maintained a complex balancing act with Iran. But this latest crisis presents not just another Middle East flare-up, but a full-blown strategic test for Ankara.

1. Energy Inflation and Macro Risks

Rising oil prices will accelerate inflation, already a major concern for Turkey. Any further escalation — especially an interruption in Hormuz or LNG supply chains — could send shockwaves through Turkish financial markets and manufacturing.

2. Supply Chain Disruptions

Escalation near key maritime corridors will increase insurance and freight costs for Turkish exporters, particularly those trading with Asia. This could lead to delayed shipments, higher input costs, and bottlenecks in key industrial sectors.

3. Diplomatic Leverage

Turkey is uniquely positioned with active diplomatic channels to both Iran and Israel. Drawing from its experience in mediating during the Russia-Ukraine war, Ankara could once again play the role of quiet mediator. However, internal political constraints, sectarian dynamics, and the complexity of the conflict may limit its influence.

Normalization of ties with Israel will be essential for Ankara to assume a credible mediator role.

4. NATO Tensions and Strategic Alignment

Ankara’s less-than-full alignment with Western sanctions on Iran could reignite tensions with Washington and Brussels. While NATO does not have a formal Israel policy, internal divisions over Iran could resurface. Turkey’s carefully balanced foreign policy may face increasing strain.

Risks and Opportunities for Turkey

Key Risks:

• Spike in energy and food prices

• Sabotage or attacks on critical infrastructure and pipelines

• Supply chain instability from Hormuz and Red Sea tensions

• Strained relations with NATO and the U.S.

Strategic Opportunities:

• Enhancing Turkey’s status as a regional mediator

• Strengthening energy and trade infrastructure partnerships

• Building alternative routes via Central Asia and the Caucasus

• Reasserting Turkey’s influence as a geopolitical pivot

The Need for a Proactive Strategy

The Israel-Iran conflict is more than just a regional war scare — it may signal a fundamental shift in how power and influence are distributed across the Middle East.

For Turkey, this is a moment of inflection. Ankara must move beyond reactive diplomacy and adopt a proactive, technically-informed, and multilayered strategy to safeguard its interests — both economic and geopolitical.

From Azerbaijan’s cross-border dynamics to the flow of Turkmen gas, and from China’s quiet diplomacy to Russia’s regional calculations, Turkey must build scenarios and act swiftly.

The days of status quo balancing are over. A new Middle East is being born — and Turkey must be ready to shape, not just survive, it.

Source: Yetkin Report

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