COMMENTARY: Turkey at a Historic Crossroads: Democracy or Authoritarianism?

A Defining Moment for Turkish Politics

With the collapse of Syria’s Assad regime, renewed discussions around Kurdish disarmament, and the arrest of several opposition mayors—including Istanbul’s Ekrem İmamoğlu—Turkey finds itself at a historic fork in the road. Two starkly different paths lie ahead. One envisions a return to democratic normalcy through constitutional reform and balance of powers. The other leads to further authoritarianism, in which the ruling AKP-MHP bloc seeks to eliminate all significant opposition.

Current political and legal maneuvers suggest the latter path is more probable. However, the coming summer may bring decisive developments that tip the balance either way.

Polls Signal Shifting Political Landscape in Turkey: CHP in the Lead, Public Strongly Backs Early Elections

Scenario 1: Peace and Democratic Renewal

This optimistic scenario, with a low probability of around 35%, foresees reconciliation between the ruling coalition and opposition. A new constitution could be crafted with checks and balances between the presidency, judiciary, parliament, and local governments. In this case, pressure on CHP would ease, and DEM (pro-Kurdish) Party would join constitutional negotiations.

CHP would be allowed to participate fully in future elections, possibly with Mansur Yavaş or Özgür Özel as presidential candidates, though İmamoğlu would likely remain sidelined.

This path would ease political tensions and be viewed positively by financial markets. However, sustained economic improvement would still require tight monetary policy, tax reform, and favorable external conditions—such as lower energy prices or export growth from regional reconstruction efforts in Syria and Ukraine.

Scenario 2: The Dark Path of Authoritarianism

This more likely scenario (65% probability) involves the near-total neutralization of CHP and DEM Party. Legal proceedings could render CHP ineligible for elections by annulling its last party congress or appointing a court-mandated trustee. İmamoğlu, Özel, and other leaders may face political bans. Meanwhile, the Republic Alliance might use judicial and legislative tools to suppress dissent and secure Erdogan’s path to re-election.

In parallel, the government may offer superficial concessions to Abdullah Öcalan—such as improved prison conditions—in exchange for pressuring DEM Party and PKK into joining a staged “peace process.” But any disarmament would likely be performative.

This approach risks frequent confidence shocks, financial volatility, and further polarization. Moreover, even if a new constitution is pushed through, it might be blocked by dissenting votes in the ruling coalition itself.

Turkish Opposition Leader Özel Faces Judicial Probes as Erdoğan’s Support Erodes Among MHP Base

Erdogan and Bahçeli’s Strategic Calculations

President Erdogan’s primary goal is to reset term limits via constitutional change, thereby regaining eligibility. To do so, he must sideline his most threatening rivals—İmamoğlu, Yavaş, and Özel. Bahçeli, though frail, is heavily invested in a Kurdish peace process. He may realize that excluding CHP from constitutional talks renders peace with Kurds unachievable.

The ruling bloc is also working to recruit enough MPs to reach 360 seats, which would allow them to call early elections unilaterally. However, given the poor economic outlook, any early vote risks electoral defeat—making indefinite election postponement a plausible scenario.

What Happens This Summer Will Decide the Future

Key developments expected by late summer will likely determine which path Turkey takes.

1. CHP Congress Bribery Trial (June 30): A court ruling could annul Özel’s leadership and reinstate Kılıçdaroğlu or appoint a trustee to manage the party until a new congress. Either outcome would paralyze CHP politically and financially, leading to mass protests and a serious confidence shock.

2. Local Administrations Bill: Rumored legislation could either limit the government’s power to remove elected mayors or further centralize control. A bill that favors local autonomy would ease tensions and signal a turn toward the “peace path.” A restrictive bill would alienate DEM Party and exacerbate social unrest.

3. PKK Disarmament Talks: Public statements by Turkish officials hint that PKK will disarm under Turkish and Iraqi Kurdish oversight. But PKK leaders insist on direct access to Öcalan and legal guarantees for the rehabilitation of its militants. Without those, they are unlikely to surrender arms. Öcalan’s involvement remains the key variable.

Mounting Pressure on CHP

The government is intensifying legal and media pressure on CHP, branding İmamoğlu’s network as a subversive “octopus” infiltrating state institutions. Before Eid, five more CHP mayors were detained, and criminal charges have been filed against Özel and eight MPs.

CHP’s response has been combative. Özel declared that the party will boycott constitutional negotiations and any early election motion after November 2025. He also hinted at civil disobedience campaigns, including street protests and sit-ins.

Despite this institutional assault, CHP appears to have won the public’s sympathy. Recent polls show the party leading, with most voters interpreting the crackdown as political revenge.

DEM Party’s Dilemma

DEM Party understands that peace or constitutional reform is impossible without CHP. It has condemned the arrests and voiced frustration with the AKP-MHP’s exclusionary tactics—especially the recent amnesty bill that left out Kurdish political prisoners. The party demands clarity on Öcalan’s status and legal assurances for returning PKK members.

Meanwhile, reports from Middle East Eye suggest Ankara is in quiet talks with the Rojava Kurdish Administration. Turkey may be willing to accept limited Kurdish autonomy in Syria in exchange for their military integration into the new National Army.

Tail Risks That Could Shake All Scenarios

Three unpredictable but critical variables could destabilize both the “peace” and “dark” scenarios:

1. Mehmet Şimşek’s Position: Rumors persist about his potential removal. So far, Erdogan has shown restraint, backing Şimşek’s fiscal discipline. If Şimşek is sidelined—especially ahead of a mid-year wage hike—it would signal a return to populism and trigger investor flight.

2. Major Earthquake: After a series of tremors in Marmara, Bingöl, and the Aegean, fears of a devastating quake loom large. A major disaster would wreak economic havoc and shift political priorities entirely.

3. Devlet Bahçeli’s Health: At 77 and visibly frail, Bahçeli’s ability to lead MHP and support the alliance is in question. His exit from politics could end the Kurdish peace process and destabilize the ruling bloc’s unity.

Conclusion: Still Time to Change Course?

As things stand, Turkey is edging toward the dark path of authoritarian consolidation. However, the events of the coming weeks—especially the CHP court ruling, PKK’s stance on disarmament, and the fate of the Local Administrations Bill—will shape whether that course becomes inevitable or reversible.

By Atilla Yesilada

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.

Follow our English language YouTube videos @ REAL TURKEY: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg
Twitter: @AtillaEng
Facebook: Real Turkey Channel: https://www.facebook.com/realturkeychannel/