Bloomberg Survey: Turkish Economy to Grow Modestly Through 2027, Inflation Seen Gradually Falling
tr-ekonomi
Economists forecast moderate growth and easing inflation, with interest rates expected to fall steadily
According to a new Bloomberg survey of 26 economists, Turkey’s economy is projected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, 3.3% in 2026, and 3.4% in 2027, suggesting a modest but stable recovery trajectory.
The survey also points to 3.3% year-on-year GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025, and a slight acceleration to 3.4% in the third quarter, indicating resilience despite ongoing economic headwinds.
Inflation, while still elevated, is expected to moderate. Economists estimate that year-end inflation will stand at 34.2% in 2025, before falling to 22.2% in 2026 and 17% in 2027, as monetary policy tightens and base effects ease.
Interest rates are forecast to drop significantly over the next two years. The current policy rate of 46% is projected to decline to 36% by the end of 2025, 24.5% by the end of 2026, and 19% by the end of 2027, reflecting expectations of a more controlled inflation environment and gradual normalization of monetary conditions.
