Inflation Expectations Survey: Public Sentiment Diverges from Data

The results of Koç University’s April 2026 Household Inflation Expectations Survey reveal a persistent gap between public perception and official economic targets. According to the study conducted with 3,028 participants between April 17 and 24, the household expectation for inflation 12 months from now has remained stagnant at 49%. Notably, the “perceived inflation” over the past year is 55%, approximately 25 percentage points higher than the official figures.

A Growing Climate of Uncertainty

The survey highlights a significant increase in the divergence of opinions among participants. While the median expectation remains stable, the “interquartile range” (the gap between different groups of respondents) and the standard deviation have expanded. This statistical shift indicates that economic uncertainty is intensifying, as common consensus among citizens regarding future price stability has begun to weaken.

Furthermore, the study shows that long-term outlooks for the next three years have become more fragmented, suggesting that the public’s shared vision of a “return to normalcy” is fading.

The Trust Gap and Savings Behavior

A critical finding of the April report is the structural link between policy trust and inflation expectations. The gap between those who trust current economic management and those who do not has widened to 12 percentage points. The report suggests that trust in economic policy is now a primary “structural determinant” in how households forecast their financial future.

This lack of confidence is directly impacting consumer behavior:

• Savings Decline: The percentage of respondents stating they “do not plan to save” rose from 10% to 15%.

• Investment Shifts: There was a slight increase in preference for time-limited foreign currency deposits, while interest in other investment vehicles dwindled.

• Demographic Differences: Women continue to hold higher inflation expectations than men, primarily driven by their closer monitoring of market and food prices.

The Financial Literacy Paradox

In a striking correlation, the survey found that higher financial literacy leads to higher inflation expectations. Participants who are more knowledgeable about economic indicators—such as exchange rates, energy costs, and global commodity trends—tend to be more pessimistic about future price stability. This suggests that those who “read the signs” of the current geopolitical and economic environment are pricing in more risk than the general public.

As the Central Bank continues its disinflation efforts, this survey underscores the challenge of aligning public expectations with official targets, particularly as market, fuel, and transportation costs remain the dominant factors in the household psyche.

source: karar