Antalya Basin to Heat Up as Climate Pressures Intensify, Study Warns

A new academic study warns that the Antalya Basin—set to host COP31—will become significantly hotter, drier, and less climatically comfortable by the end of the century. The findings point to mounting risks for agriculture, water resources, and tourism, raising concerns about the region’s long-term economic sustainability.

Sharp Warming Expected Across the Basin

A 2024 study by researchers from Kastamonu University and Hiroshima University presents a stark outlook for the Antalya Basin under various climate change scenarios.

According to the research, average annual temperatures—currently around 10–12°C across roughly 30% of the basin—are projected to rise significantly. Even under optimistic scenarios, temperatures are expected to increase to 14–16°C by the end of the century. Under high-emission scenarios, averages could climb as high as 18–20°C.

Researchers warn that such warming would have far-reaching implications, affecting ecosystems, water availability, human habitation, and production patterns.

Interior Regions Also at Risk

The study highlights that climate change will not be limited to coastal areas. Inland districts such as Korkuteli and Akseki, as well as winter tourism centers like Davraz, are also expected to experience noticeable warming.

These shifts could disrupt local agricultural systems, strain water resources, and alter traditional ways of life in regions historically considered cooler.

Declining Humidity Signals Drier Climate

Humidity levels, another critical climate indicator, are also projected to decline.

Currently ranging between 60% and 66%, humidity levels across nearly 40% of the basin are expected to fall to around 62–64% by the end of the century. This trend points toward a progressively drier climate, which could increase pressure on both agriculture and water management systems.

Tourism Faces Growing Climate Risks

The outlook for tourism—one of Antalya’s key economic pillars—is also becoming more uncertain.

The study indicates that areas currently classified as “comfortable” for tourism could shrink significantly. While no zones are currently categorized as “uncomfortable,” projections suggest that up to one-quarter of the basin could fall into a “hot and uncomfortable” climate category under pessimistic scenarios.

Such a shift could have major implications for coastal tourism, potentially altering travel patterns and seasonal demand.

Geography Amplifies Climate Impact

Researchers note that Antalya’s geography may intensify the effects of climate change.

The Western Taurus Mountains run parallel to the coastline, forming a natural barrier between coastal and inland areas. This limits air circulation and contributes to sharp climatic contrasts over short distances, amplifying localized impacts of rising temperatures and declining humidity.

Urgent Need for Adaptation Policies

The study underscores the need for immediate adaptation strategies to mitigate future risks.

Key policy recommendations include:

• Improving water resource management
• Promoting drought-resistant agricultural practices
• Reconfiguring tourism strategies to align with changing climate conditions

Researchers warn that failure to act now could lead to significantly higher economic and environmental costs in the future.

Key Findings from the Study

• Average temperatures could rise from 10–12°C to as high as 18–20°C under high-emission scenarios
• Significant decline in climate comfort, with up to 25% of the basin becoming “hot and uncomfortable”
• Traditionally cooler inland regions expected to shift into warmer climate categories
• Declining humidity levels likely to increase pressure on agriculture and water systems
• Core sectors such as tourism and agriculture face direct and substantial risks

Source: Academic study by Kastamonu University & Hiroshima University