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Trade Gap Widens: January Exports Dip as Deficit Climbs to $8.38 Billion

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Fresh data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) and the Ministry of Trade reveal a challenging start to 2026. Turkey’s foreign trade deficit surged by 11.6% in January, reaching $8.38 billion, as export momentum slowed against a backdrop of steady import costs. The export-to-import coverage ratio, a key indicator of economic balance, fell to 70.8%, down from 73.8% in the previous year.

Export Momentum Slips in Season-Adjusted Figures

In January 2026, Turkey’s total exports reached $20.32 billion, a 4% decline from the same month last year. When adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, the contraction appears even steeper at 5.8%. Imports, meanwhile, remained virtually flat with a slight 0.1% increase, totaling $28.69 billion.

The Core Trade Balance: Stripping Out Energy and Gold

When volatile items like energy and non-monetary gold are excluded, the underlying trade picture remains under pressure:

  • Core Exports: Decreased by 2%, falling from $19.49 billion to $19.11 billion.

  • Core Imports: Rose by 5.3%, climbing to $21.91 billion.

  • Core Coverage Ratio: Without energy and gold, the export-to-import coverage ratio stood at a more resilient 87.2%.

Manufacturing Dominates as Germany and China Lead

Manufacturing remains the backbone of Turkish trade, accounting for 92.7% of exports in January. However, high-technology products still represent only a small fraction of this output, at 3.3%.

The geographical landscape of trade remains consistent:

  • Top Export Destination: Germany held the top spot ($1.78 billion), followed by the UK, the USA, and Italy.

  • Primary Import Source: China remained the leading supplier ($4.28 billion), followed by Russia ($3.08 billion) and Germany.

Intermediate Goods Fuel Import Volume

The structure of Turkey’s imports reveals a heavy reliance on production inputs. Intermediate goods (raw materials and components) accounted for 72.1% of January’s total imports. Capital goods and consumption goods followed at 14.3% and 13.1%, respectively. While the “Special Trade System” recorded a slightly higher deficit of $8.9 billion, both measuring systems confirm that the widening trade gap remains a primary focus for national economic policy in 2026.

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