2025 Year-End Polls: A Dead Heat Between CHP and AK Party as “Undecideds” Surge

As Turkey enters the final week of 2025, the political landscape is defined by a razor-thin margin between the two leading parties. Data from three major research firms—HBS, ORC, and AREA—show that while the main opposition CHP maintains a slight edge in some metrics, the race has effectively narrowed to a statistical dead heat.

1. HBS Research: CHP Leads, but Undecideds are the “Third Party”

The HBS poll, conducted between December 19-23, shows CHP in the lead after distributing undecided voters.

• CHP: 34.3%

• AK Party: 29.8%

• The Gap: 4.5 points.

• Key Insight: Before distribution, 17.4% of voters identified as “undecided.” This group is currently larger than any minor party, making them the ultimate kingmakers for the 2026 election cycle.

2. ORC and AREA Research: The “Photo-Finish” Scenario

In contrast to HBS, both ORC and AREA findings suggest a complete equalization of the two giants.

• Statistical Tie: Both firms report AK Party and CHP tied at approximately 30.5% to 31.1%.

• CHP Momentum Stall: AREA’s longitudinal data reveals that CHP’s spring peak of 35% has cooled off, returning the race to a 2023-style equilibrium.

3. The Nationalist Shift: İYİ Party Gains on MHP

The polls highlight a significant realignment within the nationalist and center-right spectrum, largely influenced by the recent “peace process” and “Imralı” debates.

• İYİ Party Ascendant: Following Müsavat Dervişoğlu’s staunch “Republican/Nationalist” stance, İYİ Party has climbed to 8.2%, overtaking MHP in the AREA poll.

• MHP Volatility: MHP’s support fluctuated during the “Terror-Free Turkey” initiative, settling around 6.5% in December.

• New Players: Yavuz Ağıralioğlu’s newly formed Anahtar Party (A-Parti) has made a notable entrance, capturing 4.2% of the vote.

December 2025 Political Scorecard (Distributed Votes)

Conclusion: A Volatile 2026 Awaits

The data suggests that the “bone” or core votes of both CHP and AK Party have solidified at around 25% each. The remaining 20% of the electorate—the “undecideds”—remain skeptical of both the government’s economic management and the opposition’s alternative solutions.

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