Şimşek Hails Inflation Expectations Drop: “Disinflation Is Gaining Strength”
Mehmet Şimşek
Türkiye’s Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek says improving inflation expectations, alongside fiscal discipline and structural reforms, are reinforcing the country’s disinflation path.
In a statement shared on X (formerly Twitter), Şimşek evaluated the latest Sectoral Inflation Expectations Report, pointing to a steady decline across households, businesses, and markets.
Sharp Decline in Expectations
Şimşek highlighted that September saw a continued drop in inflation forecasts compared with last year:
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Households: Expectations fell by 18.6 points year-on-year.
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Real sector: Down 14.3 points.
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Market participants: Improved by 5.2 points, bringing the expectation to 22.3%.
Policy Mix Supports Disinflation
The minister stressed that Türkiye’s progress is not limited to sentiment shifts. He pointed to three anchors of the program:
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Tight fiscal discipline
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Ongoing structural reforms
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Falling inflation expectations
Together, Şimşek argued, these elements are accelerating the disinflation process and strengthening confidence in the government’s economic roadmap.
“The improvement in expectations, fiscal discipline, and structural reforms continue to support the disinflation process,” Şimşek wrote.
Why It Matters
Falling expectations are a crucial indicator for central banks and policymakers. If households and businesses believe inflation will keep dropping, it reduces the risk of price-setting behavior that can perpetuate inflation.
For Türkiye, where consumer inflation has been persistently high, these alleged numbers suggest that confidence in policy measures is gradually improving.
