Türkiye’s Fertility Rate Drops to 1.48: Experts Warn of ‘Beanpole Families’ and Rising Social Isolation

Türkiye’s steadily declining fertility rate is not only reshaping its demographic profile but also transforming traditional family structures and weakening social cohesion, sociologists warn.

According to Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) data for 2024, the country’s total fertility rate—the average number of children born per woman—has fallen to 1.48, well below the 2.1 replacement level required to maintain population size.

Experts argue that this shift has far-reaching societal consequences, including the erosion of extended family models, growing individualism, and a deepening sense of social isolation.

“Beanpole Families” to Replace Extended Kinship

Associate Professor Pelin Önder Erol of Ege University’s Department of Sociology explained that the decline in fertility is leading to a vertical family structure, often centered around a nuclear unit of just one child and two parents.

“We refer to this as the ‘beanpole family’ model,” said Erol. “If the trend continues, future generations will grow up without aunts, uncles, or cousins. The concept of the extended family could vanish in practice, weakening social support networks and increasing loneliness.”

Erol stressed that Türkiye is still within its ‘demographic window of opportunity’, where the working-age population remains higher than the dependent population. Drawing comparisons to countries like China, India, and the Asian Tigers, she noted that the successful mobilization of youth populations has historically been critical for economic advancement.

Weakened Social Bonds and Economic Risks

Professor Nilüfer Özcan of Dokuz Eylül University attributed the drop in fertility to economic instability, rising female labor participation, and growing individualism. She emphasized that a shrinking younger population not only threatens economic productivity but could also strain the social security system.

“In aging societies like Japan, the burden of elder care falls heavily on the working young. Türkiye is heading in a similar direction,” Özcan warned. “Lower fertility also dismantles extended family ties and weakens communal solidarity, leaving individuals more isolated.”

Policy Recommendations: From Childcare Support to Employment Pathways

To reverse this trend, Özcan called for comprehensive social policies. Key measures include:

• Expanding access to public childcare and preschools

• Mandating paternity leave

• Launching rural support programs to attract educated families

• Establishing transition mechanisms to help women enter the workforce safely after completing higher education

Experts agree that unless these challenges are addressed through targeted reforms, Türkiye risks becoming a lonelier, more fragmented society with fewer social safety nets in future generations.