Turkey’s Birth Rate Hits Historic Low Amid Economic Strain and Gender Inequality

According to 2024 data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), Turkey’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.48 children per woman, marking its lowest level in two decades. In 2001, the rate stood at 2.38, but it began a consistent downward trend after 2014.

In response to this demographic shift, the Turkish government has established a new Directorate of Family and Population Policies, and officials have increasingly pointed to women’s labor force participation as a reason for falling birth rates. However, experts argue that this claim lacks strong empirical backing.

Dr. Cem Oyvat, Associate Professor at Greenwich University, challenges the government’s narrative. “The idea that women joining the workforce leads to lower fertility rates isn’t strongly supported by data,” he said. “In fact, OECD countries show a positive correlation between women’s employment and fertility.”

Oyvat highlights that economic conditions play a far more crucial role. “Raising children in urban areas requires financial security. Blaming working women ignores the income dimension of fertility,” he explained. Citing World Bank data, he noted that Turkey ranks 25th lowest in the world for female labor participation. “Countries like Iran, India, Tunisia, and Nepal—where women’s workforce participation is even lower—also have fertility rates well below the replacement level of 2.1,” he added.

He further emphasized the importance of education and gender equality: “Suggesting women should neither study nor work is incompatible with any development vision. Women’s education, autonomy, and access to the workforce are key pillars of progress. Turkey is missing out on significant human capital by keeping women out of the labor market.”

Dr. Ayşe Kaşıkırık, president of the Global Equality and Inclusion Network, points to economic instability, inflation, and societal crises as additional causes behind the fertility decline. “Uncertainty discourages families from having children,” she said. “More importantly, patriarchal systems in Turkey continue to restrict young women. Early forced marriages still occur, and although literacy and education rates among girls are improving, higher education delays marriage and lowers birth rates.”

Kaşıkırık added that in wealthier nations, birth rates aren’t treated as a crisis. “In Northern Europe, governments provide strong social and workplace support for women, so there’s less fear about the future. Their policies reflect genuine gender equality, unlike what we see in Turkey.”

Experts agree that economic hardship, gender inequality, and lack of social support systems are at the core of Turkey’s falling fertility rate—not women’s pursuit of education or employment.

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