Türkiye’s Fertility Rate Falls to 1.48, Raising Alarm Over Population Sustainability

Türkiye’s total fertility rate dropped to 1.48 in 2024, falling well below the population replacement level of 2.10, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). Experts warn the sharp decline in birth rates could pose long-term demographic and economic challenges, as Türkiye edges closer to the group of countries unable to sustain population growth.

Above EU Average, But On a Downward Slope

While Türkiye’s fertility rate remains above the EU average of 1.38—based on 2024 data from 27 member states—its trajectory is concerning. Just a decade ago, in 2014, Türkiye’s fertility rate stood at 2.19, indicating a dramatic demographic shift in only ten years.

Countries like Bulgaria, France, and Hungary currently lead Europe in fertility rates, but Türkiye’s declining trend reflects broader social and economic pressures influencing family planning choices.

In response, the Turkish government declared 2025 the “Year of the Family” and announced a 2026–2035 plan titled the “Decade of Family and Population.” However, experts caution that symbolic initiatives alone will not reverse the decline.

Türkiye Among Lowest in OECD for Family Support

One of the most effective tools to counter falling fertility rates—government support for families—remains weak in Türkiye. According to OECD data, Türkiye ranks among the lowest in public spending on family benefits, alongside countries like Mexico, Costa Rica, the U.S., and Spain.

In in-kind family support, Türkiye is second to last, just ahead of Canada. While it ranks slightly higher in cash benefits, the country remains near the bottom in overall family support spending.

More Spending, But Less Impact

Türkiye’s Ministry of Family and Social Services reported that 491.7 billion TL was spent on social assistance in 2024—a 61% increase from 305.9 billion TL in 2023. Yet, when adjusted for GDP, the effectiveness of this spending appears limited.

In 2024, social assistance spending equaled just 1.11% of GDP, the lowest in five years. For comparison, this figure peaked at 1.42% in 2020.

According to TÜİK’s 2023 Social Protection Statistics, overall social protection spending accounted for 10% of GDP, but family and child support made up only 0.7%, revealing limited direct investment in child-rearing.

Decline in Households Receiving Aid Since Pandemic

The number of households receiving government support dropped from 6.63 million during the pandemic in 2020 to 4.57 million in 2024. While the decrease reflects a post-pandemic transition, it also coincides with increased economic hardship, placing greater pressure on vulnerable families.

Experts Call for Long-Term, Inclusive Support Policies

Experts warn that Türkiye’s declining fertility rate and insufficient social support system could undermine its labor market and social security structure in the coming decades. They emphasize the urgent need for inclusive, long-term, and sustainable policies that can support families and incentivize childbearing in a rapidly aging society.

Without substantial reforms, Türkiye may face deepening demographic and economic challenges, mirroring trends in countries already grappling with shrinking workforces and rising dependency ratios.