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Weekly polls show razor-thin race as undecideds reach 37 percent

anket secim

Summary:


A series of opinion polls published in January 2026 point to an increasingly competitive political landscape in Turkey. In parliamentary voting intentions, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) has edged ahead of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in several surveys, while presidential polls show Recep Tayyip Erdoğan still leading but with a narrowing margin. A record-high share of undecided voters is emerging as a key factor.

ORC poll: CHP narrowly leads AK Party

According to a survey conducted by ORC Research between Jan. 27–29, 2026, across 26 provinces with 2,200 respondents, the race between Turkey’s two main parties remains extremely close.

Voting intentions if a general election were held this Sunday:

  • CHP: 31.4%

  • AK Party: 30.9%

  • Nationalist Movement Party (MHP): 7.5%

  • DEM Party: 7.2%

  • Good Party (İYİ): 5.5%

Smaller parties collectively captured a meaningful share, underlining their potential role in shaping post-election parliamentary arithmetic.

ON Research: Wider gap in favor of CHP

A separate poll by ON Research, conducted Jan. 12–18 with 2,400 participants, showed a more pronounced lead for the CHP:

  • CHP: 34.1%

  • AK Party: 28.9%

  • DEM Party: 8.3%

  • MHP: 6.6%

  • İYİ Party: 5.0%

The findings suggest growing voter consolidation around the main opposition party, at least in some segments of the electorate.

Presidential race: Erdoğan leads, margin tightens

In a presidential election poll released by ALF Research, conducted face-to-face with 2,000 respondents between Jan. 12–16, Erdoğan remains in first place but with reduced support compared with previous elections:

  • Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 42.8%

  • Mansur Yavaş: 37.8%

  • Selahattin Demirtaş: 12.6%

  • Fatih Erbakan: 3.9%

The results reinforce Mansur Yavaş’s position as a leading opposition contender and keep the debate over a unified opposition candidate alive.

ASAL survey: Undecided voters dominate

One of the most striking findings comes from ASAL Research, whose January 2026 survey showed undecided voters and those planning not to vote forming the single largest bloc:

  • Undecided / Will not vote: 33.4%

When undecided votes are distributed proportionally, the results indicate:

  • CHP: 34.8%

  • AK Party: 32.1%

  • DEM Party: 8.4%

  • MHP: 7.0%

Analysts say this underscores the decisive role undecided voters could play in any early or scheduled election.

Average of 15 polling firms: CHP holds slim lead

An average compiled from December results of 15 polling companies shows the CHP maintaining a narrow but consistent lead nationwide:

  • CHP: 32.3%

  • AK Party: 30.8%

  • DEM Party: 8.4%

  • MHP: 6.9%

  • İYİ Party: 5.5%

Outlook: High uncertainty, volatile electorate

January’s polling data point to a highly competitive and fluid political environment in Turkey. While the CHP appears to have gained momentum in parliamentary voting, Erdoğan continues to lead the presidential field — albeit with shrinking margins.

With undecided voters at record levels and economic conditions weighing heavily on public sentiment, analysts expect polling trends to remain volatile in the months ahead. Alliances, candidate selection and voter turnout are likely to determine the final outcome.

Various Turkish news sources

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