COMMENTARY: Why Public Opinion Polls in Turkey Matter Beyond Election Seasons

The author İbrahim Kiras is a conservative intellecutal, who is anti-government, writing for KARAR Daily.

İbrahim Kiras

In Turkey, most people only hear the names of polling firms during election seasons. Yet reputable research organizations conduct surveys throughout the year—not just in times of political competition. While some firms focus exclusively on elections due to demand patterns, others maintain consistent tracking of public sentiment as part of their broader research mandate.

Polls Mirror a Country in Constant Political Motion

Given Turkey’s perpetually heated political climate, opinion polls often capture rapid shifts in public sentiment. This volatility, combined with frequent poll results that challenge personal or political expectations, has created a culture of skepticism toward polling data. However, surveys conducted by professional and transparent institutions remain essential tools—not only for politicians but for anyone trying to project the country’s social or political future.

Understanding how public responses to questions like “Which party would you vote for if elections were held today?” evolve over time offers insight into the real-world impact of political events and social developments. Expecting polls to predict election results perfectly misses their primary function: identifying trends and changes in voter perception.

Common Findings Across Recent Surveys

Looking at a range of recent polls from multiple reliable firms reveals a clear pattern: Turkey’s biggest issue, as identified by the public, is the economy. A striking majority—around 70%—cite the high cost of living as the country’s most pressing problem.

Other concerns like justice, the legal system, and the state of rule of law occasionally rank as secondary issues, but typically attract far less attention unless a high-profile case brings them to the fore. For example, recent judicial actions targeting Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his colleagues have not garnered broad public approval. A significant portion of even AKP and MHP voters find the charges unconvincing. Yet, it is notable that despite these doubts, few identify justice as the nation’s top problem—suggesting either resignation or prioritization of daily economic challenges.

Public Sentiment on Key National Issues

Another surprising trend is the growing public support for the government’s Kurdish peace initiative. Very few respondents now list terrorism or the Kurdish issue as the country’s most significant problems—marking a shift from past public sentiment.

When it comes to party politics, surveys show a tight race between the ruling AKP and the main opposition CHP. Since the 2023 local elections, the CHP has often polled as the leading party, though monthly fluctuations sometimes return the lead to the AKP. Still, the CHP is clearly in a stronger position than in past years.

Trust Deficit: Who Can Solve Turkey’s Problems?

Despite these gains, many Turkish voters remain unconvinced that any party can truly resolve the country’s issues. According to the latest Asal Research survey, 35% of respondents said “none” when asked which political party could solve Turkey’s problems. Another 26% still believe only the AKP is capable. Just 17% named the CHP.

For CHP leadership, this finding should prompt introspection rather than frustration. As a party vying for power, the CHP must now confront and dismantle the perception that it is unprepared or incapable of governing. The lingering skepticism reflects a deeper branding and messaging challenge that the party must address strategically.

On the other side, it would benefit AKP leaders to move beyond attacking the credibility of unfavorable polling and instead ask themselves how they might regain voter trust by addressing real concerns. Unfortunately, the ruling party seems more invested in political engineering tactics to maintain power than in addressing public grievances. These strategies often backfire—as seen in the public backlash following the cancellation of Istanbul’s mayoral election.

The recent escalation of political maneuvering ahead of March 19 may be another sign that those in power are out of touch with prevailing public attitudes.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.

Follow our English language YouTube videos @ REAL TURKEY: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg
And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng
Facebook: Real Turkey Channel: https://www.facebook.com/realturkeychannel/