Gündemar Survey: Nationalist Vote Seen as Decisive, Majority Opposes Political Role for Öcalan

A comprehensive nationwide survey by Gündemar suggests nationalist voters could play a pivotal role in Türkiye’s next presidential election. The research also shows strong public opposition to Abdullah Öcalan taking on a political role in the so-called “Terror-Free Türkiye” process.

A new 208-page report titled Türkiye Gündemi, based on interviews with 2,255 respondents across 60 provinces, provides fresh insight into party standings, potential presidential matchups, and shifting voter dynamics ahead of the next electoral cycle.

If Elections Were Held This Sunday

After undecided voters were distributed, party support stands as follows:

• CHP: 33.33%

• AK Party: 28.56%

• DEM Party: 9.38%

• Zafer Party: 5.95%

• Anahtar Party: 5.82%

• MHP: 5.35%

• Good Party (İYİ Party): 4.54%

• New Welfare Party (YRP): 3.79%

• Workers’ Party of Türkiye (TİP): 1.13%

• Others: 2.15%

CHP leads the field, while the AK Party remains in second place.

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Nationalist Alliance Scenario

The survey also tested a hypothetical alliance between the Good Party, Zafer Party, and Anahtar Party under a unified nationalist bloc.

Under that scenario:

• CHP: 30.07%

• AK Party: 25.82%

• Nationalist Alliance: 20.72%

• MHP: 6.89%

• DEM Party: 9.41%

• YRP: 3.01%

Notably, when running separately, the three nationalist parties together poll at 16.34%. As a joint alliance, their support rises to 20.72% — an increase of 4.38 percentage points.

The shift appears to draw votes primarily from CHP and the AK Party, while DEM Party support remains largely stable.

Political observers in Ankara have long argued that nationalist voters could become the decisive bloc in the 2028 presidential race, with projections suggesting nationalist parties collectively could approach 25% of the electorate.

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Presidential Matchups

The report also measures second-round presidential scenarios.

• Mansur Yavaş: 58.64%

• Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 41.36%

• Ekrem İmamoğlu: 58.07%

• Erdoğan: 41.93%

• Özgür Özel: 54.39%

• Erdoğan: 45.61%

All three opposition figures lead President Erdoğan in hypothetical head-to-head contests.

Trend data from June to January indicate that both Yavaş and İmamoğlu have widened their margins over recent months.

By contrast, nationalist figures such as Ümit Özdağ, Yavuz Ağıralioğlu, Müsavat Dervişoğlu, and Fatih Erbakan trail Erdoğan in direct matchups.

Debate Over Electoral Strategy

The findings feed into a broader strategic debate within opposition circles.

Some analysts argue that relying primarily on Kurdish-oriented DEM Party voters would be insufficient to secure victory in a presidential runoff. The data suggest nationalist voters may hold greater numerical leverage, particularly if they consolidate behind a single bloc.

Public Opinion on Öcalan’s Role

Respondents were also asked whether Abdullah Öcalan should play a political role in the “Terror-Free Türkiye” process.

Results show:

• Correct/Appropriate: 23%

• Wrong/Inappropriate: 67%

• No opinion: 10%

Support is overwhelmingly concentrated among DEM Party voters (95%), while majorities of AK Party, MHP, CHP, and Good Party voters oppose such a role.

The three-month average shows opposition holding steady at around 67%.

Key Takeaways

The survey highlights two critical dynamics shaping Türkiye’s political landscape:

1. Nationalist voters may hold the balance of power in the next presidential election.

2. A broad majority of the electorate opposes granting Abdullah Öcalan a formal political role.

As alliance negotiations and candidate positioning intensify, these findings suggest that electoral math — particularly the nationalist vote — could prove decisive in determining the outcome.

Source:  Aytunc Erkin, NEFES Daily