Global Diplomacy Winds Fuel Bullish Surge: BIST 100 Eyes New Records

Global markets are navigating a critical junction where geopolitical friction is yielding to diplomatic overtures. Following the temporary ceasefire established between the US and Iran last week, strong signals that both parties are ready to return to the negotiating table have pushed risk appetite to its peak. Statements from US President Trump suggesting the “war is very close to an end,” coupled with the potential two-week extension of the ceasefire set to expire on April 22, have created a “spring atmosphere” across trading floors. Borsa Istanbul stands out as one of the primary beneficiaries of this newfound optimism.

BIST 100: Technical Outlook on the Road to the Summit

The BIST 100 index has anchored at its highest levels in two months, fueled by expectations of fresh negotiations. Testing above the 14,300 mark this week, the index has bolstered investor confidence, with technical indicators confirming an upward trajectory.

Analysts identify the 14,100 – 14,070 zone as a vital support threshold. As long as the index remains above this range, the short-term outlook will stay positive. While 14,350 serves as the immediate resistance, the ultimate target remains the all-time high of 14,530. From current levels, the index needs to gain approximately 2.3% to refresh its historical record.

However, investors should note that short-term technical indicators have entered “overbought” territory. This could lead to intraday volatility and a partial give-back of gains as profit-taking occurs near resistance levels. Nevertheless, as long as the 14,070 support holds, maintaining “trade-oriented” positions remains a rational strategy. Meanwhile, the banking index’s attempt to stay above 18,000 points should be monitored closely, as any loss of momentum in this sector could weigh on the broader market.

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Forex and Parity: Dollar Weakens as the Euro Rebounds

The diplomatic traffic has triggered a retreat in the US Dollar Index (DXY). As tensions ease, the greenback has shed its “safe haven” status, allowing emerging market currencies to find their footing.

The EUR/USD parity has reclaimed pre-war levels, breaking through the 1.17 resistance. The 1.1740 level now stands as critical support. For the rally to prove sustainable, the pair must maintain its footing above 1.18; in this scenario, 1.1830 and 1.19 become the next psychological targets.

On the USD/TRY front, a more controlled trend prevails. The dollar’s move above the 44.70 level indicates that the Turkish Lira is performing slightly behind its emerging market peers. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) foreign exchange auctions and interventions remain the primary factors limiting upward momentum. For the pair, 44.60 acts as support, while the 44.80 – 44.90 range serves as short-term resistance.

Bonds and Bills: Tightening Steps Balance Yields

Domestic bond yields experienced a pullback during yesterday’s session. The benchmark bond yield receded to 39.44%, while the 10-year bond yield settled at 32.22%. However, the continuity of this decline is subject to debate.

The CBRT’s tight liquidity management and its decision to provide funding at the upper band of the interest rate corridor (40%) may act as a brake on further yield retreats. Additionally, Turkey’s 5-year CDS risk premium has returned to 230-232 levels—matching pre-war figures—clearly reflecting an improvement in the country’s risk perception.

Commodities: The Dance of Gold and Oil

Gold prices are gaining strength, driven by both the reduction in geopolitical risks and the weakening dollar. Spot Gold achieved a technical breakout by rising above the $4,800 resistance, hitting a one-month high. As long as gold stays above this mark, targets of $4,870 and the 50-day moving average at $4,900 remain in play.

In the Gram Gold market, the rally in spot prices is being complemented by the controlled support of the USD/TRY exchange rate. Gram Gold has surpassed the 6,950 TRY threshold and is trending toward 7,000 TRY. Any closing above 6,800 TRY signals a continuation of the upward trend for local gold investors. Meanwhile, oil prices remain stable at short-term bottom levels, supported by hopes for a diplomatic resolution.

Key Highlights and Expectations

Today, markets will keep a close eye on the final March inflation figures from the Eurozone. Inflation is expected to be confirmed at 2.5%, up from 1.9% due to the energy price shocks seen in March. From the US, industrial production data and weekly jobless claims will provide clues regarding global economic activity.

Tomorrow, the market will shift its focus to S&P Global’s credit rating review of Turkey. While Turkey’s rating remains three notches below investment grade, the agency’s commentary on energy costs and the current account balance will be critical for market sentiment.

Conclusion: Diplomacy is currently the primary driver for market direction. Whether the two-week ceasefire evolves into a permanent peace—covering nuclear programs, the Strait of Hormuz, and war reparations—will determine the long-term trend. In the short term, as long as the BIST 100 stays above 14,000, the bullish sentiment is expected to prevail.

Turkish brokerage reports

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