Ekrem İmamoğlu Writes from Prison: Public Institutions, Credibility and What the Data Really Shows

Writing from his prison cell, Istanbul Mayor and presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu delivered a sweeping critique of Türkiye’s public institutions, questioning the credibility of official statistics and warning that decades of centralized governance have deepened regional inequality and structural fragility.

A Childhood Discovery — and Lost Trust

İmamoğlu began with a personal reflection. At age 12, he discovered the State Statistics Office in Trabzon, then housed in a modest building overlooking Meydan Park. The annual statistical report — oversized, dense, and filled with data on population, agriculture, production and the economy — captivated him.

He recalls spending months trying to understand the figures, visiting repeatedly to obtain updated editions. Through statistics, he says, he learned to “read” Türkiye — from provinces and districts to economic performance and demographic patterns.

“At that time,” he writes, “there was trust in institutions. If a state body published data, citizens believed it was accurate. That belief was a guarantee.”

Today, he argues, that guarantee has collapsed.

Institutions in Crisis

İmamoğlu accuses the government of reducing key public institutions to instruments of political control, naming TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute), state broadcaster TRT, Anadolu Agency, the Presidency’s Directorate of Communications, and public banks among those he says have lost credibility.

“The fall of trust in institutions to this level is a disgrace for the current administration,” he writes.

He singles out TÜİK as particularly significant, arguing that distorted economic data harms the country’s financial credibility and policymaking. In a country where, he claims, trust in the judiciary has fallen below 20%, broader institutional mistrust is hardly surprising.

Population Data: What the Numbers Say

Referring to newly released 2025 population figures, İmamoğlu notes that Türkiye’s population has reached 86,092,168 — validating his recent references to “86 million citizens.”

He highlights Istanbul’s population at 17,754,053, noting that growth has slowed significantly over the past seven to eight years. The most recent annual increase was just 0.33%.

However, he argues that Istanbul’s actual population is far higher when factoring in unregistered residents, temporary migrants, university students and asylum seekers. Water consumption data, he suggests, indicates the real figure exceeds 18 million.

Industrial Concentration and Strategic Risk

İmamoğlu criticizes recent statements by the Minister of Industry and Technology suggesting that industrial investments may shift away from Marmara toward other regions such as the Eastern Mediterranean. He dismisses these comments as lacking strategic planning.

According to him, Türkiye’s economic activity — from production to imports and exports — has become dangerously concentrated in the Marmara Region, which comprises roughly one-tenth of the country’s geography.

“This imbalance,” he argues, “is the product of 24 years of unplanned governance.”

He warns that the region faces mounting structural risks, including:

• Earthquake vulnerability

• Overburdened transportation networks

• Environmental degradation

• Rapid, unbalanced urbanization

• Depletion of water resources

He specifically cites large-scale development projects such as Kanal Istanbul, construction on former military lands, and encroachment on northern forests as policies that could add an estimated 2.5 million additional residents to the city.

Regional Inequality and Demographic Imbalance

İmamoğlu also points to demographic disparities as evidence of structural injustice.

According to TÜİK data:

• The youngest province is Şanlıurfa, with an average age of 21.8.

• The oldest is Sinop, with an average age of 44.

• Fourteen provinces with average ages in the 20s are all located in Southeastern and Eastern Anatolia.

Yet these same provinces rank near the bottom in per capita income, access to education, and healthcare services.

“This is a critical indicator of inequality,” he writes, arguing that young populations in underdeveloped regions are being denied opportunity.

A Systemic Governance Failure

İmamoğlu frames these patterns as the result of what he describes as a governance model rooted in nepotism and centralization, rather than meritocracy and science-based planning.

Türkiye, he argues, must launch a comprehensive transformation aligned with 21st-century priorities — spanning economic development, justice reform, education, agriculture, industry and technology.

Early Election Call

He concludes by citing public opinion data indicating:

• Institutional trust at roughly 10%

• Trust in the judiciary around 20%

• 68% support for early elections

• 75% expecting economic conditions to worsen

Under such circumstances, he says, the opposition must pursue a credible and forceful call for early elections.

From behind bars, İmamoğlu’s message combines personal memory with structural critique — arguing that rebuilding institutional trust is not merely a political issue, but a prerequisite for Türkiye’s long-term stability.