CBRT Survey: Turkish Households Lock in 48pct Inflation Forecast

The latest Household Expectation Survey for February 2026, released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB), reveals a nation bracing for a high-cost future. Despite shifts in individual asset preferences, the general public’s outlook on the economy remains stubbornly fixed, with inflation anxiety continuing to drive investment behaviors.

Inflation Expectations: A Concrete 48.8% Wall

According to a survey of 3,217 households, the 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectation remained unchanged from the previous month, holding steady at 48.81%. While the headline figure is stagnant, the underlying sentiment is growing more pessimistic: 63.4% of participants now believe inflation will be even higher a year from now, up from 59.3% in January.

The Golden Sanctuary: Savings Shift Away from Real Estate

In a climate of high inflation, Turkish citizens are flocking to a traditional safe haven. The percentage of people choosing gold as their primary investment surged to 55.5% in February.

• Gold Popularity: Increased by 2.7 points in a single month.

• Real Estate Cooling: Interest in buying “houses, shops, or land” dropped to 30.0%, as high prices likely deter new buyers.

• USD Outlook: The expected exchange rate for the 12 months ahead saw a slight dip, with households forecasting the US Dollar at 51.56 TL.

Housing and Energy: The New Pain Points

When asked which sectors saw the highest price hikes over the past year, Food remained the top answer at 41.1%. However, looking forward, households are increasingly worried about Fuel and Energy and Rents.

The survey notes a slight “cooling” in housing price increase expectations, which fell from 39.23% to 35.41%. This suggests that while citizens expect general inflation to remain high, they anticipate a slowdown in the runaway real estate market.