CBRT Inflation Survey Shows Surging Expectations for 2026

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) recently unveiled its March 2026 Survey of Market Participants, signaling a pivot in financial sentiment. As geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran escalate, the Turkish economy is facing a “perfect storm” of rising energy costs and cooling growth. The survey, a critical barometer featuring 67 experts from the financial and real sectors, highlights a significant jump in inflation expectations that could redefine the nation’s fiscal path for the remainder of the year.

CBRT Inflation Survey: Inflation Breaches Key Thresholds

The most striking takeaway from the CBRT inflation survey is the upward revision of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Professional forecasters have raised the year-end inflation target from 24.11% to 25.38%. This surge is largely attributed to volatility in global oil prices, which are currently trending toward $100. In the short term, market participants expect March inflation to hit 2.18%, a figure that will directly impact the cost of living and automatic salary adjustments for pensioners and civil servants.

CBRT Inflation Survey Indicates Currency Pressure and Widening Deficits

While the year-end Dollar/TL exchange rate expectation remained relatively stable at 50.96, the 12-month outlook suggests long-term pressure on the Lira, with the exchange rate climbing to 52.70. This currency instability, combined with the high cost of energy imports, has caused the Current Account Deficit forecast to balloon. Expectations for the year-end deficit surged from $26.3 billion to $31.6 billion, placing additional strain on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Growth Deceleration and Monetary Policy

The survey also indicates that the aggressive “tight money” policy is beginning to impact productivity. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been adjusted downward to 3.8%, reflecting a more cautious investment climate. Despite this slowdown, the consensus remains that the Central Bank will keep the policy rate at 37% in the near term to combat inflationary pressures. Analysts do not foresee significant rate cuts until the end of the second quarter, with a projected 12-month policy rate of 28.48%.

As the region remains on high alert, the CBRT’s ability to balance price stability with economic momentum will be the defining challenge of 2026.