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BIST Tests Key Levels as FX and Bond Yields Edge Higher

borsa teknik analİz

Markets remain driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank expectations. Türkiye’s BIST 100 index is trading within a critical range, while bond yields are rising and the Turkish lira continues a controlled depreciation. Investors are closely watching both developments in the Middle East and the upcoming central bank decision.

BIST 100: 14,530 Emerges as Key Threshold

The BIST 100 index started the week on a weaker note following renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. After dipping toward 14,400 during the session, the index managed to recover part of its losses.

  • 14,530 stands out as the critical level
  • Sustained trading above this threshold could eliminate double-top risks
  • Upside resistance levels: 14,600 and 14,700
  • Key support: 14,350

As long as the index holds above 14,350, the short-term outlook remains constructive. Pullbacks toward this level may be seen as healthy corrections, supporting tactical buying strategies.

The banking index found support near 18,100, with:

  • 18,000 and 17,900 (50-day moving average) as support
  • 18,500 as resistance

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Fixed Income: Yields Move Higher

Domestic bond yields continued to rise:

  • Benchmark yield: 39.41%
  • 10-year yield: 31.93%

The decision by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to suspend weekly repo auctions and fund liquidity at higher rates is limiting any downside in yields.

Key levels to watch:

  • 41% for benchmark bonds
  • 33% for 10-year yields

USD/TRY: Controlled Uptrend Continues

The strengthening US dollar has weighed on emerging market currencies, including the Turkish lira.

  • 44.80 now acts as support
  • Above 44.90, the next resistance is 45

The central bank’s FX interventions continue to cap excessive volatility, maintaining a gradual upward trend.

EUR/USD: Struggling to Hold Above 1.18

The EUR/USD pair failed to maintain gains above 1.18 following renewed geopolitical tensions.

  • Resistance: 1.1830
  • Support: 1.1730, followed by 1.17

A sustained move above 1.18 remains key for further upside momentum.

Gold: Volatile but Structurally Supported

Gold prices have softened due to a stronger dollar but remain technically resilient.

  • Support: $4,730
  • Key level: $4,800
  • Resistance: $4,900 and $5,000

In local terms, gram gold remains supported by FX dynamics:

  • Above TRY 6,950 maintains bullish bias
  • Resistance: TRY 7,050 and 7,100
  • Support: TRY 6,800

Key Developments of the Day

  • BIST 100 tested a new record high at 14,610
  • Donald Trump signaled willingness to meet Iranian leaders if progress is made
  • Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the US is demanding surrender
  • Uncertainty persists around US–Iran negotiations

Macro Data to Watch

Today’s key data releases include:

  • Türkiye real sector confidence index
  • Capacity utilization rate
  • Germany ZEW sentiment indices
  • US retail sales
  • US pending home sales

Central Bank Outlook

Markets are focused on the upcoming decision by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

  • Expectations point to a rate hike from 37% to 40%
  • The upper band of the interest rate corridor could rise to 43%

The decision is expected to have a significant impact, particularly on banking stocks.

Geopolitics Remain the Main Driver

Ongoing tensions between the US and Iran continue to dominate market direction. The fate of the ceasefire and potential negotiations in Pakistan are critical near-term catalysts.

Overall Outlook

In the short term, markets will remain sensitive to:

  • Geopolitical developments
  • Central bank decisions
  • Global macro data

A sustained move above 14,530 in BIST 100 could pave the way for new highs, while 14,350 remains the key support level.

Turkish brokerage reports

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