WIKI Markets: BIST 100 Ends Higher as Bank Stocks Lead Gains; Reserves Rise, Global Central Banks in Focus

Turkish equities closed higher on Thursday, led by banking shares, while foreign inflows into both equities and bonds continued. Global markets digested softer U.S. inflation data, policy moves by major central banks, and Japan’s first rate hike in three decades, while Türkiye’s central bank reported a further increase in reserves.

BIST 100 Rises, Banking Shares Outperform

The BIST 100 index closed Thursday up 0.43% at 11,335 points, with total trading volume reaching TRY 117.5 billion.

Banking stocks outperformed the broader market, gaining 1.24%, while holding companies rose 0.11%. Industrial shares ended the session broadly flat. Mining stocks climbed 1.47%, supported by higher commodity prices and weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data.

Defense stocks also attracted buying interest after Germany approved €50 billion in arms and equipment spending in response to perceived Russian security threats, with ALTNY leading sector gains.

Within the BIST 30, ASTOR, TRALT, and GARAN posted the strongest gains, while ENKAI, BIMAS, and FROTO were among the weakest performers.

Foreign Investors Remain Net Buyers

According to the latest weekly data, foreign investors purchased $26.3 million worth of Turkish equities last week. Bond purchases were more pronounced, totaling $339.6 million, underscoring continued interest in Turkish fixed income assets.

Central Bank Reserves Continue to Rise

Data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) showed that gross reserves increased from $186.4 billion to $190.8 billion in the latest reporting week.

Gross foreign exchange reserves rose from $69.0 billion to $70.9 billion, while gold reserves increased from $109.7 billion to $112.2 billion, reflecting both valuation effects and ongoing reserve accumulation.

Global Central Banks: BoE Cuts, ECB Holds

Globally, central bank decisions remained in focus. The Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, in line with expectations.

The European Central Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.15%, while revising its growth forecasts upward. The ECB now expects euro zone growth of 1.4% in 2025 (up from 1.2%), 1.2% in 2026 (from 1.0%), and 1.4% in 2027 (from 1.3%).

On inflation, the ECB maintained its 2025 forecast at 2.1%, raised the 2026 projection to 1.9% from 1.7%, and revised its 2027 estimate down to 1.8% from 1.9%.

U.S. Inflation Undershoots Expectations

In the United States, consumer price inflation for November rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, coming in below the 3.1% market expectation. The data reinforced hopes of easing price pressures, although questions remain about data quality following the earlier government shutdown.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he had met with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller as a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. Trump described Waller as “excellent” and reiterated his preference for a Fed chair supportive of growth-oriented monetary policy.

FX and Commodities: Lira Stable, Gold Retreats

In currency markets, USD/TRY tested 42.8350 early in the session before easing slightly to trade around 42.80, while EUR/TRY remained flat near 50.22.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) edged up to 98.53, while EUR/USD slipped modestly to 1.1717.

In commodities, Brent crude fell to $59.45 per barrel, while spot gold declined to around $4,320 per ounce, reflecting profit-taking after recent gains.

Asia Markets Higher; BOJ Delivers Historic Rate Hike

Asian equity markets traded higher on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street. U.S. equity futures pointed to a positive open, with all major indices in the green except the Dow Jones.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking its first rate hike since 1995. The decision was unanimous. The BOJ said confidence had increased that inflation, supported by wage growth, would sustainably reach its 2% target.

The central bank added that real interest rates would remain “significantly negative” even after the policy change and that accommodative financial conditions would continue to support economic activity.

Türkiye Macro: Inflation, Growth and Ratings

The CBRT published minutes from its 11 December Monetary Policy Committee meeting, which showed a 150 basis point rate cut. The bank cited leading indicators suggesting that the favorable trend in food prices seen in November continued into December.

Moody’s forecast Türkiye’s economy to grow 3.2% in 2025, rising to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. The agency expects inflation to average 35% in 2025, with a ±2 percentage point margin, before easing to 22% in 2026 and 18.5% in 2027.

Fitch Ratings announced that its 2026 credit rating review dates for Türkiye are 23 January and 17 July.

Company News

• Vestel (VESTL): Fitch revised the company’s long-term local and foreign currency credit rating to “CCC+” from “B-”, and downgraded its $500 million 2029 senior unsecured bonds to “CCC” from “B-”.

• Pegasus Airlines (PGSUS): The company signed agreements with CFM International for the supply and maintenance of LEAP-1B engines for up to 150 Boeing 737-10 aircraft. If maintenance services are fully utilized over 10 years, total payments to CFM could reach approximately $5.9 billion. Deliveries are expected to begin from 2028.

• BVSAN: Subsidiary BVS Crane Technologies GmbH signed a €1.99 million modernization contract, with completion planned for the fourth quarter of 2026.

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