Türkiye’s Budget Deficit Surges Past ₺1.2 Trillion by September 2025

The Turkish Ministry of Treasury and Finance has released its latest data showing that the central government budget posted a deficit of ₺309.6 billion in September 2025, marking a sharp reversal from the previous month’s temporary surplus. This brings the total deficit for the first nine months of the year to ₺1.217 trillion, signaling growing fiscal pressures as public expenditures continue to outpace revenues.

September Snapshot: ₺309.6 Billion Deficit

In September, budget expenditures reached ₺1.331 trillion, while budget revenues totaled ₺1.021 trillion, resulting in a monthly shortfall of ₺309.6 billion. The primary balance (excluding interest payments) also slipped into negative territory, with primary expenditures at ₺1.094 trillion and a primary deficit of ₺73 billion.

The data shows a sharp increase in fiscal spending compared to earlier months, reflecting higher current transfers, personnel costs, and investment outlays, alongside slower revenue growth tied to tax collection and public enterprise income.

Nine-Month Deficit Surpasses ₺1.2 Trillion

From January through September 2025, Türkiye’s central government budget deficit climbed to ₺1.217 trillion, up from ₺907.6 billion in the first eight months.
During the same period, total budget expenditures amounted to ₺10.22 trillion, while revenues reached ₺9.00 trillion, illustrating the widening fiscal imbalance.

Despite the ballooning overall deficit, the government still maintained a primary surplus of ₺445.1 billion in the first nine months — a key metric often cited by the Treasury to indicate control over non-interest spending. However, analysts note that interest payments and off-budget fiscal operations are increasingly eroding the benefits of that surplus.

Economic Context: Inflation and Spending Pressures

The widening gap comes amid a challenging macroeconomic environment marked by high inflation, elevated borrowing costs, and currency volatility. Fiscal policy has remained expansionary, driven by social spending commitments, post-disaster reconstruction projects, and wage adjustments in the public sector.
Economists warn that without a shift toward tighter fiscal discipline, Türkiye risks deepening its debt trajectory and fueling further inflationary pressure in late 2025.

Analysts Warn of Fiscal Fatigue

Fiscal experts interpret the September data as a warning signal ahead of year-end. “The pace of spending remains too high relative to revenue growth,” said one Istanbul-based economist. “Even with a primary surplus, interest payments and contingent liabilities are eating into fiscal space. Without stronger revenue measures, the 2025 deficit could approach or exceed ₺1.5 trillion by December.”

Markets are closely watching whether the Medium-Term Program (OVP) targets will hold, especially as the government attempts to balance economic growth incentives with price stabilization goals.

Looking Ahead: Balancing Growth and Stability

The Treasury is expected to maintain a cautious stance for the remainder of the year, prioritizing domestic borrowing and selective spending control to manage the growing deficit. Still, with inflation above projections and local elections on the horizon, analysts doubt that significant fiscal tightening will occur in the short term.

The September figures underscore the government’s delicate balancing act — sustaining economic momentum while preventing fiscal slippage from undermining monetary policy.