Turkey’s October Inflation Expected Around 3.2%

Following September’s 3.23% increase in consumer prices, Turkey’s October inflation (TÜFE) is expected to come in around 3.1%–3.25%, signaling another month of elevated price growth — and a pause in the country’s disinflation trend.

Analysts note that such a figure would surpass last year’s 2.88%, pushing annual inflation higher for the second consecutive month, despite official claims that disinflation remains “on track.”

‘Disinflation Continues’ — But the Numbers Say Otherwise

While policymakers may argue that “disinflation continues,” the data tell a different story. As one economist put it,

“Technically, annual inflation could rise while disinflation is said to persist — but the public sees prices, not percentages. If prices keep climbing, people don’t believe inflation is falling.”

The projection for October CPI growth of 3.10–3.25%, with a possible margin of error of ±0.15 points, implies monthly inflation could range from 2.95% to 3.40% — anything outside that band would be a surprise.

Key Drivers Behind the 3.1–3.25% Estimate

1. Exchange Rate Movements

The basket exchange rate rose 0.84% in October, with the dollar up 1.22% and the euro up 0.51%.
By contrast, the same month last year saw a 0.25% decline in the basket rate — yet inflation still reached 2.88%.
This year’s opposite trend in the currency market will add upward pressure on October’s CPI.

2. Transportation Costs

This category offers mixed signals:

• Fuel prices: Despite a weaker lira, average fuel prices dropped 1.7%, slightly lowering headline inflation by about 0.05 points.

• Car prices: However, vehicle prices rose around 1.5% in October. Last year they had fallen, offsetting fuel hikes. This time, the effect reverses, pushing the transportation index up by 0.21 points.

• Urban transport & taxis: The 30% fare hike introduced mid-September in Istanbul will reflect fully in October data, adding further pressure to the transport sub-index.

3. Food Prices: The Persistent Culprit

Food inflation — with 25% weight in CPI — remains relentless.
Analysts forecast a 4% rise in October, driven by seasonal produce and ongoing supply bottlenecks, adding roughly 1 percentage point to headline inflation.

4. Clothing and Footwear

October typically brings the largest seasonal price jumps in apparel.
With an expected 15% increase, this group (7.16% of CPI) will likely add another full point to overall inflation.

5. Housing and Rent

The housing group, accounting for 15% of the CPI basket, is projected to rise about 3%, with rents alone climbing around 4%.
This sub-index is expected to add roughly 0.4 points to headline inflation.

6. Other Categories

Combined, the remaining components — health, education, furnishings, and communication — are estimated to contribute an additional 0.5–0.6 points.

Bottom Line: 3.1–3.25% Monthly Rise Expected

When all components are tallied:

• Food: +1.0 point

• Clothing: +1.0 point

• Housing: +0.4 point

• Transport: +0.21 point

• Other categories: +0.5–0.6 point

➡️ Total expected CPI increase: 3.10%–3.25%

Such a reading would underscore that inflationary pressures remain broad-based — from rent to food and clothing — and that the “disinflation narrative” is losing credibility as price momentum persists.