Turkey’s Big Split: Peace vs. Imrali

A new survey by AREA Research reveals a striking contradiction at the heart of public opinion in Turkey: while a substantial majority supports initiatives aimed at permanently ending terrorism, the same public firmly opposes a recent parliamentary visit to Imrali Island. The findings, drawn from the organization’s November 2025 “Turkey Political Agenda Study,” provide a rare snapshot of how voters are navigating a moment marked by sensitive political discourse and rising tensions around the country’s peace agenda.

According to a nationwide poll conducted in 26 provinces with 2,000 participants, 60.2% of voters support the “Terror-Free Turkey” initiative, reflecting a widespread desire for long-term stability and an end to armed conflict. However, an even larger segment—65.7%—rejects the decision by a parliamentary delegation consisting of AK Party, MHP, and DEM Party representatives to travel to Imrali Island to hear from Abdullah Öcalan.

This contrast paints a clear picture: while the public wants progress toward peace, many feel uncertain or uncomfortable about the political channels used to pursue it.

Strong Support for Ending Terrorism

From November 22 to 24, AREA Research asked participants whether they supported the government-backed initiative to eliminate terrorism and foster long-term peace. The answers suggest a rare point of consensus in an otherwise polarized political atmosphere:

• Support: 60.2%

• Oppose: 35.4%

• No opinion: 4.4%

Support cuts across multiple voter segments—young voters, conservative voters, women, and individuals aged 55 and above all express backing above the national average. This broad base underscores how deeply the aspiration for a secure, conflict-free future resonates across the electorate.

Imrali Visit Sparks Strong Public Rejection

If the peace agenda finds widespread acceptance, the method used to implement it—specifically, the visit to Öcalan—does not. Survey participants responded overwhelmingly against permitting the parliamentary committee to travel to Imrali Prison.

• Yes, they should go: 27.5%

• No, they should not go: 65.7%

• No opinion: 6.8%

Notably, rejection of the Imrali visit is consistently high across political parties and ideological identities. Respondents who identify as “Atatürkist,” “Turkish nationalist,” or “conservative” show extreme resistance, with disapproval rates surpassing 70%. This indicates that the Imrali debate is cutting across traditional political boundaries and stirring widespread discomfort.

Political Statements Fail to Shift Public Mood

Public reaction to high-profile political comments further reinforces the unease surrounding the Imrali issue. Respondents were asked to evaluate remarks from two prominent political leaders.

MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli’s statement, “If necessary, I will go to Imrali,” received a sharply negative response:

• Negative: 63.2%

• Positive: 30.4%

Meanwhile, IYI Party leader Müsavat Dervişoğlu’s critique, “Let him be released and let him go,” produced a far more divided reaction:

• Positive: 45.6%

• Negative: 44.5%

Together, these results point to an electorate that remains cautious, skeptical, and deeply sensitive on matters involving Imrali—regardless of whether statements come from government or opposition leaders.

CHP and AK Party Running Neck and Neck

The study also offers insight into shifting political alignments. Before allocating undecided voters, support for major parties stands as follows:

• CHP: 24.8%

• AK Party: 23.6%

• DEM Party: 6.2%

• IYI Party: 5.5%

• MHP: 4.7%

• Zafer Party: 3.9%

A significant 23% of participants remain undecided—an unusually high figure that could reshape the electoral landscape. After distributing undecided voters, CHP and AK Party remain nearly tied for the second month in a row, signaling a competitive and fluid political environment.

Methodology

The research was conducted by AREA Research from November 22 to 24, 2025, across 26 provinces, involving 2,000 participants. Data collection was conducted using CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The margin of error is ±2.19, and analysis was performed using SPSS.