Turkey Labor Market Outlook: Employment Declines, Jobless Rate Flat at 8.6%

Despite a contraction in employment in September, Turkey’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.6%, according to seasonally adjusted data released by TurkStat. The figures show a slight weakening in labor participation, but overall indicators suggest a relatively stable job market heading into the final quarter of the year.

Employment Drops by 200,000, Jobless Rate Steady

TurkStat reported that the number of employed persons fell by 200,000 in September, bringing total employment to 32.49 million. The labor force shrank by 188,000, leaving 3.07 million people unemployed. As a result, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained flat at 8.6%, while the employment rate slipped marginally to 48.2%.

Broad Unemployment Shows Mild Improvement

Alternative indicators present a slightly more positive picture. The broad unemployment rate, which includes those underemployed or available but not seeking work, declined from 18.1% to 18.0%. Meanwhile, the labor underutilization rate, capturing both underemployment and potential labor force, rose modestly from 20.3% to 20.5%.

Overall, total labor underutilization fell from 29.8% to 28.6%, pointing to gradual improvement in broader labor market dynamics.

Full-Time Employment Edges Up

Using composite indicators, TurkStat noted a mild increase in full-time employment and time-related underemployment compared to previous months. The three-month moving averages indicate that employment remained relatively stable in September, with minor seasonal effects absorbed by short-term adjustments.

Gender Breakdown: Male and Female Employment Down

Men’s employment declined by 22,000, but their labor force participation increased by 80,000, keeping the male unemployment rate nearly unchanged at 7.4%.

Among women, labor force participation fell by 178,000, while employment dropped by 86,000, pushing the female unemployment rate slightly higher to 11.6%.

Overall, seasonally adjusted unemployment stood at 8.1% for men and 11.6% for women, with labor force participation rates at 71.6% and 35.7%, respectively.

Labor Market Resilient Despite Slowdown

Despite weaker employment numbers, analysts view the data as evidence of a resilient labor market in the face of slower growth and tight monetary policy. Broader measures of joblessness show limited deterioration, while real wages have started to stabilize.

Economists note that the slight weakening in job creation coincides with the CBRT’s ongoing interest rate hikes, which have curbed credit-driven growth but helped moderate inflation pressures. The combination of slower hiring and stable unemployment suggests a soft landing scenario rather than a sharp contraction.