TURKEY in the Morning: Borsa Istanbul Hit by Geopolitical Tensions: Index Tests 10,000 Level Again

Damascus Strike Triggers Intraday Volatility

Although Borsa Istanbul started the day with mild buying interest, the BIST100 index fell below the 10,000 level around 3 PM following Israel’s airstrike on Damascus, the capital of Syria. However, after news broke of a ceasefire in Suwayda, the city where tensions began, a rebound from the 9990 level helped the index close back above 10,000. At the closing bell, the index was down 1.02%, ending the session at 10,122 with a trading volume of TRY 124.1 billion.

Sectoral Breakdown: Banks Lead the Losses Again

Banks led the losses once again with a 2.56% decline, while industrial and holding stocks dropped 0.93% and 0.64%, respectively. Transportation stocks fell 1.46% amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the region, while defense stocks closed the day in positive territory, benefiting from the rise in risk perception. Notable gainers included SDTTR (+9.96%), AKTNY (+7.26%), PAPIL (+5.85%) and ASELS (+3.99%). REITs (real estate investment trusts) rose by 0.32% in anticipation of next week’s expected interest rate cuts.

BIST30 Movers: Top Gainers and Losers

ASELS was the top gainer within the BIST30 index due to heightened regional tensions, followed by EKGYO and ULKER. On the losing side were ISCTR, GARAN, YKBNK, AKBNK, and KCHOL.

June Budget Data: Massive TRY 330 Billion Deficit

Turkey’s central government budget revenues reached TRY 909.4 billion in June, while expenditures came in at TRY 1.239 trillion. As a result, the monthly budget deficit stood at TRY 330.2 billion. For the January–June period, the cumulative deficit reached TRY 980.5 billion.

FX and DXY Movement

At the time of writing, the Turkish lira has gained value against both the U.S. dollar and the euro. USD/TRY declined to 40.19, while EUR/TRY traded at 46.84. Meanwhile, the DXY rose to 98.50, with the EUR/USD pair falling to 1.1625.

Commodities: Brent Rises, Gold Pulls Back

In commodities, Brent crude climbed to $68.09 amid rising geopolitical risks, while spot gold retreated to $3,342 per ounce.

Trump–Powell Rumors Shake Gold

Spot gold spiked to $3,377 per ounce yesterday after a White House official reportedly claimed President Trump could dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell before August 4. Although Trump later denied the claim, The New York Times reported that he had even drafted a resignation letter for Powell.

Erdoğan–UAE Agreements: 7 New Deals Signed

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hosted the UAE president yesterday and announced the signing of seven new bilateral agreements:

• Investment Cooperation in Tourism and Hospitality

• Investment Cooperation in the Pharmaceutical Industry

• Investment in Industry and Manufacturing

• Investment Cooperation in Food and Agriculture

• MoU on the Formation of a Joint Consular Committee

• MoU on Research Cooperation in Polar Regions

• MoU on Mutual Protection of Classified Information

Erdoğan stated that the bilateral trade volume target is $20 billion for 2025 and $40 billion in the medium term.

TSPB Report: Turkish Households’ Financial Assets Grow

According to the June 2025 “Financial Markets Summary” released by the Turkish Capital Markets Association (TSPB), domestic investors’ equity holdings grew by 7.9% in the first half of the year to TRY 3.89 trillion. Overall financial assets of Turkish households rose by 21% to TRY 36.1 trillion in the same period.

Citi: Silver to Surpass $40

Citing tight physical supply and rising investment demand, Citigroup Inc. forecast that silver could rise above $40 per ounce. The bank raised its 3-month silver forecast from $38 to $40 and its 6–12 month target to $43. Citigroup made no changes to its gold forecasts, saying peak prices have likely already been reached. The bank expects gold to fall below $3,000 in 2026.

Today’s Economic Calendar

On today’s data agenda, Turkey will release housing sales figures, while the Eurozone will publish CPI data. In the U.S., markets are watching retail sales, weekly jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

Ongoing Risk: War Fronts Continue to Cast Shadow

As warned in yesterday’s morning report, further escalation in the Syria–Israel and Ukraine–Russia conflicts could continue to pressure risk assets and regional stock indices.

Company News

PGSUS

In June, Pegasus Airlines carried 3.61 million passengers, a 10% increase year-over-year. Domestic passenger traffic rose 7% to 1.29 million, while international traffic climbed 12% to 2.33 million.

ACSEL

A new order for Carboxy Methyl Cellulose (CMC) was received on July 16, 2025, from Turkish Petroleum Corporation for use in drilling operations. The contract value is $3.76 million, with delivery scheduled for later this year.

HRKET

As announced on July 4, 2025, HRKET signed an agreement to provide crane and installation services for a wind power plant to be built in the Lviv region of Ukraine. The contract is expected to last around three months, with a total value of $3 million.

MIATK

MIA-MED, the AI-powered Medical Billing System project, was approved by the Gazi University Technopark Management as of June 1, 2025. The project budget is TRY 12.28 million and is expected to be completed within 18 months. The system uses NLP and ML technologies to fully automate billing processes in healthcare institutions.

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