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Polls: What Are Turks Most Concerned About — And How Do They View the Peace Process?

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GENAR November Poll Shows AK Party Ahead, Economy Dominating Voter Sentiment

A new GENAR survey (pro-AKP)  shared by columnist Abdulkadir Selvi suggests that the AK Party has regained first place in voter preferences, with CHP close behind. DEM Party remains the third largest political force, while MHP holds steady in the 8–10% band. Economic conditions continue to shape public opinion more than any other issue — trust in economic management is low, pessimism is high. A separate Bulgu Research survey highlights severe cost-of-living pressures and rising demand for economic policy solutions. On the peace process and PKK disarmament, the public remains divided, but skepticism dominates.

Party standings: AK Party leads, CHP close behind

GENAR November party share:

Party % Vote
AK Party 34%
CHP 32.1%
DEM Party 10.7%
MHP 8.1%
İYİ Party 4.3%
Zafer Party 3.6%
Anahtar Party 2.5%

CHP briefly overtook AK Party after Ekrem İmamoğlu’s detention in March, but the ruling party has since reclaimed the lead, albeit by a narrow margin.

Selvi notes CHP’s stagnation:

“CHP couldn’t maintain momentum and failed to produce a project beyond İmamoğlu.”

MHP stable at 8–10% band — support shaped by the peace process

GENAR trend:

  • Jun: 8.9%

  • Jul: 9.0%

  • Aug: 8.1%

  • Sep: 8.4%

  • Oct: 8.4%

  • Nov: 8.1%

Selvi argues MHP’s stance in the “No-Terror Türkiye Process” is key, adding that rejecting the process might have brought a temporary vote boost, but not peace.

DEM Party holds third place

DEM’s trajectory:

  • Jun: 10.1%

  • Jul: 9.8%

  • Aug: 9.8%

  • Oct: 9.4%

  • Nov: 10.7%

Support rose again following the party’s endorsement of the peace initiative.

IYI Party & Zafer fail to break out

Both remain in low single digits:

  • IYI Party ~4%

  • Zafer ~3%

Selvi: “No major leap despite strong opposition to the peace process.”

Economy remains the dominant political variable

The research reveals sharp polarization in economic confidence:

Confidence in economic management %
No trust at all 31.5
Do not trust 34
Trust 15.3
Full trust 1.8

Over 65% express distrust — only 17% express confidence.

Expectations for 2026 outlook:

  • 23.2% believe economy will improve

  • 64% expect worsening

Selvi concludes:

“Government must rebuild trust and reduce pessimism if it hopes to maintain political advantage.”

Supporting Data: Bulgu Research December Study

Income distribution

  • 39% households earn ≤25,000 TL/month

  • Only 5.3% earn 125,000 TL+

Cost-of-living crisis

  • 43.9%: income barely covers basic needs

  • 34.2%: covers basics but cannot save

  • Only 6.8% say they are financially comfortable

➡ 78% report economic hardship

What drives voting decisions?

Factor shaping vote choice %
Economy 45.1
Leader 26.3
Government performance 19.3

When choosing a party:

  • 21.7% prioritize economic policy

  • 19.8% justice/legal stance

  • 14.2% leadership

Top national problem according to voters

  • 38.9% economy

  • 18.5% justice

  • 12.3% education

  • 9.6% unemployment

Peace Process & PKK Disarmament — Public opinion remains skeptical

  • İmralı visit by DEM–MHP–AK Party delegation

    • 56.2% oppose

    • 27% support

  • On PKK disarmament:

    • 54.4% say “not real”

    • 29.6% say “positive for Türkiye”

  • Abdullah Öcalan amnesty debate:

    • 65.6% oppose

    • 17.1% support

CHP operations

Regarding police operations against CHP-run municipalities:

  • 43.8% consider them unjustified

  • 26.2% find them justified

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