Libya’s Parliament  Signals Possible Shift Toward Turkey on Maritime Deal

In a move that could dramatically reshape the geopolitical balance in the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya’s eastern-based House of Representatives, aligned with General Khalifa Haftar, is reportedly considering ratifying a contentious maritime agreement with Turkey. The deal, long dismissed as illegal by Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and even the Libyan parliament itself, may now receive formal backing—marking a surprising reversal in regional alignments.

From Rejection to Endorsement: Libya’s Eastern Parliament Revisits 2019 Turkey-GNA Maritime Deal

The agreement in question was originally signed in 2019 between Turkey and Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. It aimed to establish a shared Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the Mediterranean Sea, granting Turkey extensive maritime rights. However, the deal was roundly condemned by Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt, who accused Ankara of ignoring international maritime law and infringing on their territorial waters.

At the time, the eastern-based Libyan parliament in Tobruk, headed by Speaker Aguila Saleh and aligned with General Haftar, also denounced the MoU as unconstitutional and a violation of Libya’s sovereignty. Now, reports indicate that this same body has formed a special committee to review—and potentially ratify—the agreement.

Regional Realignment: Haftar’s Son Engages Ankara

The apparent policy shift follows months of quiet diplomacy. In April, General Haftar’s son and likely successor, Saddam Haftar, paid a landmark visit to Ankara. Turkey, which had previously intervened militarily against Haftar’s forces to defend Tripoli in 2019, has since leveraged humanitarian and diplomatic engagement to build bridges with Libya’s eastern leadership.

The ratification of the deal by the Tobruk-based parliament would place both of Libya’s major political factions—Tripoli and Tobruk—on the same side of Turkey’s contested maritime claims. This would mark a sea change in Mediterranean geopolitics and embolden Ankara’s bid to position itself as the region’s leading maritime power.

Greek and Egyptian Concerns Prompt Urgent Diplomacy

In response to the Libyan parliament’s sudden interest in the Turkish deal, Athens is reportedly seeking Egyptian intervention to prevent its ratification. Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis made an unscheduled trip to Cairo this week to discuss the issue with his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty. The timing coincided with a legal crisis involving Egypt’s treatment of the Greek Orthodox monastery of St. Catherine in Sinai, raising diplomatic stakes further.

According to a report by Middle East Eye, Greece views the potential endorsement by eastern Libya as a direct threat to its 2020 maritime agreement with Egypt—an accord based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Turkey-Libya deal, by contrast, bypasses UNCLOS provisions and disregards the maritime rights of Greek islands entirely.

Implications for Eastern Mediterranean Energy Projects

Should Tobruk ratify the Turkish maritime deal, the ripple effects would be significant. It would complicate joint plans by Greece, Cyprus, and Israel to develop offshore gas fields and build an undersea electricity interconnector. These projects have already stalled amid rising regional tensions.

Moreover, a Libyan endorsement could embolden Syria’s government to negotiate a similar accord with Ankara, including maritime recognition for Northern Cyprus—a breakaway entity recognized only by Turkey. Such a move could deepen regional divides and further undermine efforts at multilateral cooperation in the Mediterranean.

Tactical Calculations or Genuine Pivot?

While the creation of a review committee suggests a shift, experts caution that it may be more about political maneuvering than genuine policy change. Aguila Saleh may be seeking relevance amid increasing international engagement by both Haftar and Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh.

Bilgehan Öztürk, a non-resident fellow at the Global Institute for Strategic Research, told Middle East Eye that the likelihood of full ratification remains low. “These are maneuvers aimed at the internal power struggle,” he said.

A Turkish official familiar with the situation added that Haftar’s camp may keep the issue deliberately unresolved—using it as leverage while deepening ties with Ankara without fully committing.

A Complicated Triangle: Ankara, Cairo, and Athens

Greece and Egypt had successfully countered the 2019 Turkey-GNA maritime accord by signing their own agreement in 2020. That arrangement, however, was signed during a period of strained relations between Ankara and Cairo. Turkish President Erdoğan had openly refused to recognize Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi’s legitimacy following the 2013 military coup.

Those relations have since improved. A new attempt by Egypt to block the Turkey-Libya deal could test the fragile diplomatic thaw between Ankara and Cairo, potentially reigniting tensions that had only recently begun to ease.

Conclusion: A Maritime Domino Effect?

If Libya’s eastern parliament proceeds with ratifying the Turkish deal, it could trigger a domino effect across the Eastern Mediterranean—reshaping alliances, undermining existing maritime accords, and fueling a new wave of regional tension. While the final outcome remains uncertain, the potential consequences are already sending shockwaves through Athens, Cairo, and beyond.

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