CHP Surges Ahead Among Women Voters: ORC Poll

A new survey conducted by ORC Research, a polling company known for its proximity to the government, has revealed striking results about women’s voting intentions in Turkey. Despite ORC’s traditionally pro-government stance, the latest findings show a significant lead for the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) over the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) among women voters. The poll, held between October 9 and 11 across 26 provinces, surveyed 2,160 women voters, asking a simple but revealing question: “If a general election were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?”

Women Lean Toward CHP

The outcome marks a notable political shift. According to the results, 36.2% of women respondents said they would vote for the CHP, while 27.5% expressed support for the AKP. This nearly nine-point gap highlights a growing preference among women for the main opposition, suggesting that the CHP’s recent efforts to expand its voter base and appeal to women have begun to pay off.

The results carry weight given ORC’s traditional reputation for favoring pro-government narratives. That a poll from such a source still shows CHP ahead of AKP adds credibility and intrigue to the changing dynamics of Turkish politics.

Smaller Parties Hold Steady

Beyond the top two parties, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), an ally of the AKP, captured 6.3% of the women’s vote. The DEM Party followed closely with 5.9%, reflecting its stable support base despite broader political tensions. Meanwhile, the Good Party (İYİ Parti) drew 5.7%, signaling that its appeal among women has waned since the 2023 elections but remains relevant.

Interestingly, the Zafer Party, known for its nationalist rhetoric, secured 5.4%, indicating that its message continues to resonate with a subset of conservative and security-focused voters.

Smaller parties trailed behind:

• Yerli ve Milli Parti: 3.2%

• Yeniden Refah Partisi: 2.9%

• Saadet Partisi: 2.5%

• Büyük Birlik Partisi: 2.1%

• Other parties combined: 2.3%

These results underscore a fragmented opposition landscape but also a decline in AKP’s dominance, particularly among a demographic it has historically relied on — conservative women.

A Shift in Political Psychology

The survey comes at a time when economic hardship, rising living costs, and changing social values have made women a critical electoral segment. Analysts suggest that women’s priorities are increasingly centered on economic security, education, and gender equality, rather than traditional party loyalty.

CHP’s recent messaging — focusing on cost-of-living issues, childcare, and equal opportunity policies — appears to have struck a chord with female voters. The party’s efforts to position itself as a modern, inclusive, and reform-oriented alternative are translating into measurable support.

Meanwhile, the AKP’s challenge lies in regaining credibility among women affected by economic stress and the decline in purchasing power. Once the bedrock of AKP’s grassroots network, female voters are now showing signs of fatigue with the status quo.

Symbolism in the Results

That this poll was conducted by ORC, a firm often cited by government-affiliated media, adds another layer of significance. The results hint that even in traditionally favorable polling environments, the political balance is tilting toward the opposition. Such a shift could foreshadow broader realignments ahead of future elections.

Political observers note that if this trend continues, women could become the decisive force in shaping Turkey’s next electoral outcome. Historically, female voter turnout has been high, and their shifting allegiances could dramatically impact parliamentary compositions.

The Broader Message

The ORC poll underscores an emerging reality: Turkey’s political climate is evolving, and women are at the forefront of this change. As economic and social pressures reshape daily life, their preferences are becoming both more pragmatic and more decisive.

In a country where half the electorate is female, the message is clear — whoever hopes to win the next election must listen to women, not just speak to them.