CBRT: June Data Signals Ongoing Disinflation Trend

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has reaffirmed that Türkiye’s disinflation process is continuing, citing early indicators from June that point to slowing inflation momentum, particularly in core goods and select service categories.

According to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) summary dated June 19, preliminary data suggests that the underlying disinflationary trend observed in previous months persisted into June.

Durable Goods Show Limited Price Increases

The report forecasts a slowdown in core goods inflation, with seasonally adjusted data pointing to milder monthly price increases. For durable consumer goods—especially those sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations—the data shows only limited price hikes, with the exception of white goods, which saw slightly more notable increases.

Services Inflation Mixed: Transport Up, Others Stable

In the services sector, transportation prices—notably road passenger travel during the Eid holiday—are expected to rise, while other service subcategories, excluding housing rents, are projected to remain moderately stable.

Food and Energy: Mixed Signals, But No Surprises

For unprocessed food, the effects of a recent frost caused fresh fruit prices to rise, but this was largely offset by falling vegetable prices. Meanwhile, processed food inflation remained generally low and contained.

In the energy group, fuel prices gained momentum due to higher network water tariffs and crude oil prices, although electricity prices showed signs of a partial decline due to adjustments in the Last Resort Supply Tariff (Son Kaynak Tedarik Tarifesi).

Central Bank Stance: Data Supports Disinflation Path

The CBRT emphasized that, taken as a whole, preliminary data supports the continuation of disinflation, aligning with its tight monetary policy stance aimed at anchoring inflation expectations and price stability.