ANALYSIS | Turkey and Israel on Collision Course as Regional Tensions Mount

By Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, FT, excerpt
July 2025 | Istanbul

A fragile post-war balance in the Middle East is giving way to new rivalries. While the brief but explosive 12-day war between Israel and Iran has faded, a deeper geopolitical tension is now emerging—between Turkey and Israel, two long-time U.S. allies increasingly viewing each other as existential threats.

Fidan’s message: “There is an Israeli problem”

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently summed up Ankara’s new tone during a fiery address at the Organization of Islamic Cooperation: “There is no Palestinian, Lebanese, Syrian, Yemeni or Iranian problem—but there is clearly an Israeli problem.”

This stark declaration signals a significant shift. For years, Turkey regarded Israel as a complicated partner. Now, it’s viewed as a strategic adversary. President Erdoğan’s discomfort with Israel’s newfound assertiveness—especially after Tel Aviv’s decapitation strike on Iranian military leadership—reflects a broader fear in Ankara: that Israel is positioning itself as the region’s hegemon, a role Erdoğan himself long aspired to claim for Turkey.

MHP leader and Erdoğan ally Devlet Bahçeli recently accused Israel of trying to “encircle Anatolia.” Once confined to fringe publications, such rhetoric is now mainstream within Turkish political circles and government-aligned media.

In Israel: Turkey seen as bigger threat than Iran

This antagonism is mirrored in Israel. Some within the Israeli security establishment now view Turkey’s ambitions as “a greater long-term threat than Iran.” Ankara’s vocal support for Hamas has drawn sharp rebukes from Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government and reportedly triggered an intensification of Israeli ties with Syrian Kurds—long seen by Turkey as a red line.

The potential for military miscalculation is rising. Both nations operate sophisticated, U.S.-supplied armed forces. And both are increasingly willing to use hard power to achieve regional aims. A direct confrontation between them—though still avoidable—would destabilize an already volatile region.

Competing worldviews: Erdoğan’s populism vs Israel’s expansionism

At the heart of this rivalry is ideology. Erdoğan’s administration blends Sunni Islamist populism with Turkish nationalism, embodied in his “Century of Turkey” project. In Israel, a hard-right coalition pursues military dominance across Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Neither side shows appetite for compromise.

The most likely flashpoint remains Syria. Since the collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024, both Turkey and Israel have moved aggressively to shape the postwar order. Ankara backs new Syrian leadership aligned with its interests and already controls key northern territories. Tel Aviv, for its part, has intensified air strikes and expressed growing support for Kurdish and Druze autonomy—viewing Syria’s new rulers as too close to jihadist elements.

April airstrike deepens tensions

In April, Israel bombed a location designated for a new Turkish military base. A deconfliction hotline now exists between the two, but broader diplomacy is frozen. Ankara has drawn sobering conclusions from the Iran war: Israel’s superior air power and intelligence reach are undeniable. In response, Turkey is accelerating efforts to plug its own strategic vulnerabilities.

Trump’s role: managing two allies drifting toward confrontation

President Donald Trump—who enjoys warm personal ties with both Netanyahu and Erdoğan—now faces a crucial test. Ending the war in Gaza would address some of Ankara’s grievances, but the deeper Turkey-Israel rivalry is unlikely to dissipate soon.

For decades, Washington viewed both Ankara and Tel Aviv as indispensable anchors of Middle East stability—difficult partners, but essential ones. Now, those two anchors are drifting toward collision. With Iran weakened, U.S. officials must prepare for the region’s next geopolitical flashpoint: the rivalry between Turkey and Israel.

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